Russia Ukraine Situation

[Ian C. Kuzushi]

I condemn Putin's aggression and illegal invasion of Ukraine. But, it's also helpful to understand how we got here. This lecture is from back in 2015, but quite prescient.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4?t=132[/youtube]

[GrahamB]

I see the usual RSF suspects are providing their usual conspiracy theory nonsense. Just ignore them. They're a lost course. Unfortunately everybody gets a voice on the Internet!

[Peacedog]

Russia has had a hard-on for killing Ukrainians for a long time.

Keep in mind that most of the Russians in eastern Ukraine were imported by Stalin after having killed a large portion of the indigenous Ukrainian population during the Soviet Union time period.

So, the Ukrainian penchant for randomly shelling, unwanted, Russian newcomers in their territory is no real surprise. Keep in mind the Czechs deported 3M ethnic Germans to eastern Germany back during the Soviet days.

Countries in the region settling newfound lands after having kicked the locals good and hard is no new thing. Likewise, the locals kicking out the newcomers when they get the chance is pretty common as well.

The issue is that the Europeans, and the Biden administration, effectively encouraged what is happening by openly stating "no ground troops in Ukraine." As a result, Putin understood that no one was going to put anything in his way that might cause him long term hardship by starting a war with the Germans/US/whoever.

High oil prices favor Putin as Russia is, and was during Soviet Times, essentially a second world petro-state. So, sanctions don't mean much over the short to mid-term. Everyone wants their oil anyway and as southeast Asia and Africa develop the demand signal is basically unlimited.

Sure, long term the lack of technology transfer, if the sanctions are upheld (which is highly unlikely), could be an issue.

Short answer is the Ukrainians may be screwed. The Baltic states (Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are probably getting really nervous. If Europe isn't standing for Ukraine, they won't for them. And as Putin is making very clear this may be over in the next week if Kiev falls.

The lack of movement by anyone else should also be making the Taiwanese nervous. Now that the PRC has enacted its final solution on the Uyghurs/Mongolians/Tibetans/Hong Kongers the Taiwanese are the only irritant left in Xi's shoes.

Now the PRC needs the West more than Putin does by a long shot, but if the end result of Putin's efforts is "we will write you a nasty letter if you don't stop and write you another one when you ignore us", maybe Xi begins to think taking out Taiwan will just blow over in a few months.

Finally, every second banana state out there is going to seek nuclear weapons as a result of this. And the long-term risk of a localized nuclear war goes thru the roof.

[Bao]

unbelievable,
do you, guys getting paychecks from Władimir or are children in the fog ?

Russia invade independent country in EUROPE,

Damn, grow up pal. No one is supporting an invasion. I merely gave facts. I can support everything with serious sources. If you have another view, you are welcome to bring up facts and then we can have a mature discussion. But I doubt that you want something like that.

As I said, we should look at all of the involved countries and try to understand their views. We can also understand through history why many Ukraines hate Russians. They have been oppressed for a long time. And Stalin committed a genocide against Ukraine.

Their politics is straight forward from Czar Mikołaj ,and never changed/ing/.
Anything more is just wishful thinkin`,

If you speak about history, learn a bit how the USA have kept meddling in foreign politics all over the World and in the neighboring countries close to the Russian borders, and how they never have changed and keep doing the same things over and over again.

I condemn Putin's aggression and illegal invasion of Ukraine. But, it's also helpful to understand how we got here. This lecture is from back in 2015, but quite prescient. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4&t=132s

Yes, that is very good lecture. Ignorant people on the board should learn a lot.

[Bao]

Three hours discussion, posted today. Lots of facts about the situation. Probably too advanced and nuanced for some simple minded people here though.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzzVhVbddhM

[windwalker]

I see the usual RSF suspects are providing their usual conspiracy theory nonsense. Just ignore them. They're a lost course.

Unfortunately everybody gets a voice on the Internet!

And your solution would be.

I tend of view it as people have different life experiences and view points.

Some I agree with, others I try to understand,
and some I don’t agree with

[windwalker]

Three hours discussion, posted today. Lots of facts about the situation. Probably too advanced and nuanced for some simple minded people here though.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzzVhVbddhM

Wow simple minded
Along with lost cause’s, ect.

What’s next

[Quigga]

The 80/20 rule continues 20% of countries will own 80% of the landmass.

Graham, didn't know you were so interested in free speech that you want to censor it

I would ask of participants in this thread to have no hard feelings against each other. Fighting and killing over different opinions is something we have to collectively leave behind if we wish to move forward.

That doesn't mean intense verbal discussions can't happen. We're all brothers and sisters, aren't we But even siblings misbehave and one may need to defend oneself. Ah, the tragedy of the human condition.

Round 3... Fight!

[Bao]

Three hours discussion, posted today. Lots of facts about the situation. Probably too advanced and nuanced for some simple minded people here though.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzzVhVbddhM

Wow simple minded
Along with lost cause’s, ect.

What’s next

Don't worry. I didn't talk about you.

"Some" people here obviously refuses to accept anything else than the extremely simplified version in the mainstream media. Simple minded. Take it literary. Simple minds.

[windwalker]

If you speak about history, learn a bit how the USA have kept meddling in foreign politics all over the World and in the neighboring countries close to the Russian borders, and how they never have changed and keep doing the same things over and over again.

Yep, totally agree.

Don’t quite understand how anyone would think there could be any other outcome.

Then what’s occurring now.

Unfortunately.

something I’m sure no one wants to see.

[Bao]

If you speak about history, learn a bit how the USA have kept meddling in foreign politics all over the World and in the neighboring countries close to the Russian borders, and how they never have changed and keep doing the same things over and over again.

Yep, totally agree.

Don’t quite understand how anyone would think there could be any other outcome.

Then what’s occurring now.

Unfortunately.

something I’m sure no one wants to see.

Yes, it's sad. It could have been prevented.

[windwalker]

It will be interesting to see what happens when or if Russia is prevented from using the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications "SWIFT"
System for international banking.

The dollar is the reserve currency the world use’s.
One of the main leverage points the US uses in sanctions, at this point in time


Once this is gone or changed what will it use.

[yeniseri]

Russia and its pre Soviet brethren were always intent on attempting to destry the territorial integrity of "neighbours" at all costs but Nazism destroyed those ambitions. Some semblance of a War Machine makes this possible and Putin sees this so he will invade just because he can and he knows, and was part of the former Soviet intelligence apparatus that tracked US behaviorual patterns. The track record is that USA will rarely honour agreements to defend those who have assisted.supported, etc them in the past so Putin is hitting 100x through this "exercise". Secondly, he MAY even stop short just to show NATO, he can do what he wants and he will come out with an offereing from the West.

Stalin, the Georgian understood this better than the Russians of the era and they continued that "expansion". The Caucasian republics were taken over, many of their citizens expelled, the Stan's were former CEntral Asian republics with Russian sympathies and Crimea was the b eginning of a Push to exert control and make a Gretaer Mother Russia.

THe Nazi Uknranian connectin is from the past but is seems a great excuse for Putin to use his proxies in Ukraine as a Fifth Element. US Americans pretend that Nazism was destroyed but it lives outside of Europe Proper (HINT: US America) and other places asa predictable pawn, also useful as a blaming tool (propaganda) for all sides to manipulate as required.
The territorial integrity of Ukraine was invaded so Ukraine joing NATO was a choice despite sharing some level of cultural semblance keeping in mind that many of the tops members of the Soviet Regime were Ukranian

[GrahamB]

I condemn Putin's aggression and illegal invasion of Ukraine. But, it's also helpful to understand how we got here. This lecture is from back in 2015, but quite prescient.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4?t=132[/youtube]

Ian,

That's a great lecture, thanks for posting.

[Ian C. Kuzushi]

My pleasure, Graham! I watched this way back then the year before matriculating there. Sorry I couldn't get the embedded link to work properly, but big ups to Bao for fixing that for me which will hopefully get more folks to check it out.

-Ian