Battle for US Hegemony Continues

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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby Bao on Wed Jul 27, 2022 11:49 am

Manufacturing has hit a wall due to a lack of semi-conductors. Thats why their army is pulling T-62s out of cold storage. They can't get the things needed to run modern tech. And they can't make the good stuff. They need to get that from somewhere else. Semi-conductor production basically breaks down as: low end for "smart" refrigerators comes out of China, mid-end SE Asia for cars, and top end US/Western.


They import 50% of their semiconductors from China. Actually, Russia can already make semiconductors and they have several companies manufacturing them. Now however they plan to scale up the production drastically, though their ambition still seems to remain low.

Russian Government's New Semiconductor Plan: Local 28nm by 2030
"The country's new chip plan involves a rather massive investment over the next eight years, the goals don't exactly sound ambitious. For example, while TSMC plans to hit 2nm by 2026, Russia wants 28nm local chip manufacturing by 2030."
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/russi ... -plan-28nm

And as WW mentioned about the Chinese 7nm chip.:

China is innovating in semiconductor chips, US sanctions or not. And furling a chip war
"TechInsights, an analyst firm that tracks tech trends, reported that China’s state-owned SMIC is shipping a 7nm MinerVa Bitcoin mining chip. The chip innovation has been called a ‘two-generation leap’ in semiconductor manufacturing."
https://theprint.in/opinion/eye-on-chin ... r/1056817/

For the sake of comparison, Samsung has recently started a mass production of 3nm chips.

And here's a long and interesting read, very well explaining Russia's situation:

The U.S. Can't Win the Battle Over Semiconductors Alone
https://www.hk-seventwo.com/news/59.html

Actually, I think that an even bigger problem for Russia right know is that they usually import more than 50% of high technology components from the EU. That's a lot of stuff to compensate.

They cannot do it on their own.


The BRICS and SCO consist of well over 50% of the World's population. Russia is certainly not as isolated as the media portray things here. But also and not to forget, In today's World, everyone relies on everyone else. No one can make anything by their own. Something that the USA and EU tend to forget.
Last edited by Bao on Wed Jul 27, 2022 11:51 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby yeniseri on Wed Jul 27, 2022 3:26 pm

Bao wrote:They import 50% of their semiconductors from China. Actually, Russia can already make semiconductors and they have several companies manufacturing them. Now however they plan to scale up the production drastically, though their ambition still seems to remain low.

Partially true but late last week or early this week, a Ukranian military group reverse engineered a Russian drone and similar equipment, and they found close to 90% of semiconductor chips with US designated markings!

Russia is far more of a formidable adversary than say, Cuba or Venezuela (embargo strategy) because they have more available natural resources as opposed many countries the USA tries to "bully " and this is where the real competition will pay off, not for Russia or USA but China.
a, Is China seeing a strategy unfolding?
b, WIll China have an equal standing, or will it receive worse treatment when they retaliate?
c, Can and will China learn from the current confrontation between USA and Russia?
d. Will Taiwan be the proxy against China (mainland)?
Last edited by yeniseri on Wed Jul 27, 2022 3:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby Peacedog on Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:12 am

Semiconductors aren't interchangeable as a group.

The PRC makes the low-end stuff. Think "smart" refrigerators.

SE Asia does automotive/motorcycle chips.

The high-end stuff is made in limited amounts in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the West. And they can definitely control who gets what.

Weapons systems...all need the high end. And very few countries can make these, even fewer have the infrastructure needed, let alone the populations to actually do the work. The PRC has been trying to do this for years. And failing. They recently, according to media, succeeded in actually making a few chips in a lab. Not the same thing as doing this industrially.

And the Russians have absolutely no chance of making this stuff (i.e. the high end) on their own. None. They don't have the capital, the people or the infrastructure. And the people are leaving as fast as they can. Demographically the Russians are really screwed, which is a primary reason behind why they attacked UKR in the first place. As in, if they didn't do it now, in 10 years they wouldn't be able to do it at all.

Globalism gave the entire world access to things that the pinnacle of empires had exclusive access to. Take away globalism and large swathes of the world rapidly de-industrialize.

It took less than six months to reduce the Russian military from top 10 in terms of technology to the 1960's.

Let that sink in.

If oil shipments get interrupted to the PRC, their entire industrial system collapses in eight weeks. And they cannot secure the sea lanes to the Persian Gulf on their own. Less than 10% of their Navy has an operational range of more than 1000 miles.
Last edited by Peacedog on Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby windwalker on Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:47 am

It took less than six months to reduce the Russian military from top 10 in terms of technology to the 1960's.

Let that sink in.



Another analysis, presenting a different outlook... :-\


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rw_WuYZ2X6U

Image


The guided rockets have achieved an increase in range and accuracy over earlier types by equipping the nose module with cruciform aerodynamic rudders and integrating the 9B706 control system with on-board radio-electronic equipment.The 9B706 uses the CH398M strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS), which receives data from angular velocity and linear acceleration sensors.

This, along with the GLONASS modules (also integrated into the 9B706 control system unit), provides a real-time data feed to generate an optimal quasi ballistic flight path for the 9M544 and 9M549 rockets.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... ed-rockets
Last edited by windwalker on Sat Jul 30, 2022 12:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby windwalker on Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:53 am

Demographically the Russians are really screwed, which is a primary reason behind why they attacked UKR in the first place. As in, if they didn't do it now, in 10 years they wouldn't be able to do it at all.



Wasn't because NATO was moving directly on their border, something they've warned about being a redline...

.

Demographics,,,yep that was it

good got that cleared up...;D
Last edited by windwalker on Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby Bao on Sat Jul 30, 2022 1:03 pm

Peacedog wrote:Semiconductors aren't interchangeable as a group.

The PRC makes the low-end stuff. Think "smart" refrigerators.


A Shanghai company has started producing 7nm semiconductors. This is what iPhone 11 and 12 used.

The high-end stuff is made in limited amounts in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the West. And they can definitely control who gets what.


Intel can't make finer than 10 nm. They have tried many years to proceed to a new generation.

Globalism gave the entire world access to things that the pinnacle of empires had exclusive access to. Take away globalism and large swathes of the world rapidly de-industrialize.


Globalism is post-colonialism. Without th Wests global colonialism, there would be no globalism, and many tenths of millions of people wouldn't have been killed or enslaved. The technological progress of today has been built upon the blood of millions and the theft of million of peoples resources. Now the US keep countries in poverty and create wars and funds terrorism all over the World to keep its hegemony. By this constant rape of other countries, progress and development of the whole World is held back. Without Globalism, countries would be left alone to develop in their own pace.

It took less than six months to reduce the Russian military from top 10 in terms of technology to the 1960's.


You should read other things than daily newspaper propaganda. In fact, Russia hasn't even used their most advanced technology.
Last edited by Bao on Sat Jul 30, 2022 1:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby Peacedog on Sat Jul 30, 2022 1:30 pm

IBM has a 2nm processor.

Most computers use 5 and 7nm.

And as has already been pointed out, the semi-conductors in Russian drones largely come from the West.

Russia wouldn't be pulling out T-62s from cold storage and firing unguided tube artillery if they could field the good stuff. The wholesale destruction the more primitive systems generate destroys the infrastructure that could be reutilized.
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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby windwalker on Sat Jul 30, 2022 3:31 pm

Peacedog wrote:IBM has a 2nm processor.

Most computers use 5 and 7nm.

And as has already been pointed out, the semi-conductors in Russian drones largely come from the West.

Russia wouldn't be pulling out T-62s from cold storage and firing unguided tube artillery if they could field the good stuff.
The wholesale destruction the more primitive systems generate destroys the infrastructure that could be reutilized.



You know this how ? :-\

Must be smoking the good stuff ;D
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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby wiesiek on Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:21 am

it is very big difference between showing something,
and
having really operational unit/s/

smokin` even the best stuff doesn`t matter in this case... -joint-
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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby Peacedog on Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:14 am

This is a pretty good article on how demographics are driving the collapse of globalism and some of the long-term outcomes. Zeihan is an econ guy, not a mil (i.e. military) guy in terms of DIME (Diplomacy, Intelligence, Military and Economics) analysis.

He's off on the mil part FWIW.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZdACrQjfn0

What we are seeing in the Ukraine, and possibly Taiwan, is what happens when nations die. Their actions become irrational, and wackiness can ensue.

The DIME model also leaves out issues of human capital and that is a major shortfall in the system.
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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby yeniseri on Sun Aug 07, 2022 10:49 am

USA hass pissed off enough nations in the past that many are waking up to the realities of post colonialism strategies that must empower the defenders of their destiny to seek some sort of internal nationalist centre to counter the enemies of their state, sadly be they real or imaginery, the latter in the case of Putin's Russia.

As I stated earlier in another thread, the embargo bulls&8t against 'small" nations like Cuba, Venezuela, etc is one thing but try pulling that on Russia or China..that scale will break
Taiwan is no Tibet but as some stated China does not have to invade to make a point but to cement their own control to counter US interests, they will have to blow some sh&t up to make a point. That is how nations or people get noticed in the modern world but again with US policy as a template, it was easier to bomb Japan that a Russia or Germany. WIll China have the guts to counter US interests and what will they do to make their point?
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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby Peacedog on Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:59 pm

Except that the way both Russia, and the PRC, exist presently is directly a result of the US run order that is globalism.

Without globalism, Russia is basically stuck at a late 70's/early 80's level of development. And the PRC as everyone here knows it does not exist.

Neither of these countries have the ability, and never had it either, to control all of the international sea lanes that allow them to exist as they do now. Russia is less dependent in terms of the fact that it can provide its own power and food supplies. What it cannot provide are the high-tech goods, and subcomponents, that allow it to operate at the developmental level it does today. All of that artic oil production only happens because of the globalism. The Russians can't do it on their own.

The PRC cannot feed, power or supply itself at all and maintain a developed economy. It lacks the fertilizers, oil and almost all of the high-tech equipment necessary. Without globalism, the PRC does not exist at all as a modern technologically advanced state.

And neither state is capable of supplying that kind of security.

The places exist as they do, because of the US. Not in spite of it.

90% of the PLA Navy has an effective range of less than 1000 miles. The Russians effectively don't have a blue water Navy. If anyone contests the waterways at all, then neither country gets what it needs by sea.
Last edited by Peacedog on Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby windwalker on Tue Aug 30, 2022 8:44 pm

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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby windwalker on Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:39 pm

Remember the plan

Providing lethal aid to Ukraine would exploit Russia’s greatest point of external vulnerability.


But any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages.


https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpASSqz1hGc
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Re: Battle for US Hegemony Continues

Postby windwalker on Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:05 pm

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