The Inflation Reduction Act recently passed by Congress adds significant long-term certainty for electric utilities and power generators eager to transition to cleaner power sources, but the effects won't be felt for a few years. That doesn't mean industry is waiting around in the meantime.
In an astonishing trend, the United States added 462% more electricity from renewables than fossil fuels in the first half of 2022 compared to 2021, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Renewable energy accounted for 25.3% of the nation's electricity generation in the first six months of this year, a full three percentage points above where things stood at the halfway mark of last year.
From 2007 to 2021, the United States experienced virtually no change in total electricity generation, but the nation's energy mix underwent historic changes.
Coal-fired power plants fell from 48.6% of national electricity production to just 21.6%.
Natural gas increased from just 21.6% to 37.8% in that span.
Meanwhile, total renewables jumped from 8.5% of the energy mix to 21%.
Consider the historic changes from June 2020 to June 2022.
The United States grew installed capacity of utility-scale solar from 38.8 gigawatts (GW) to 63.3 GW, an increase of 63%.
The United States grew installed capacity of onshore wind from 107 GW to 137 GW, an increase of 28%.
Many renewable power plants added in 2021 are contributing to energy production for the first time in 2022 – and they're making their presence felt.
From the first half of 2021 to the first half of 2022:
The United States added 22.3 TWh of electricity from solar (including small-scale installations) and 47.7 TWh from wind.
By comparison, the nation added only 39.7 TWh from natural gas and saw coal-fired power generation decline by 27 TWh.
In total, the United States added 82 TWh from all renewables and only 14.6 TWh from all fossil fuel sources.
This is a remarkable shift compared to the first phase of the energy transition when natural gas-fired power plants were responsible for most new generation.
Here's another way to look at it: The United States could add over 90 TWh of electricity from wind power and 35 TWh from solar in 2022 compared to 2021. That nation only added 345 TWh and 160 TWh from wind and solar, respectively, in the 14 years spanning 2007 to 2021.
The trend will accelerate in the next few years. The EIA estimates 13 GW of solar was added to the grid in 2021, but expects another 44 GW to come online by 2023. Why is that important?
Whereas wind power production peaks in early spring and early fall, solar production peaks in summer. That sounds obvious, but national energy consumption also peaks in summer due largely to air conditioning. That makes solar uniquely positioned to help renewables continue dominating the energy mix and put the final nail in the coffin of coal-fired power plants.
The third phase of the energy transmission beginning near 2030 will be powered by all the same trends, although offshore wind power will begin to nudge natural gas-fired power plants off the grid.
Nearly 30 GW of offshore wind capacity is expected to come online by 2030, up from virtually nothing today. That may not sound like much, but these next-generation power plants can produce two- and three-times as much electricity per GW than onshore wind and utility-scale solar, respectively. They will also generate electricity for the country's major coastal population centers, helping cities rapidly reduce their reliance on coal and natural gas facilities.