Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

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Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby everything on Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:59 am

https://www.popularmechanics.com/scienc ... y-by-2030/

The idea of singularity is the moment AI exceeds beyond human control and rapidly transforms society. Predicting this timing is tricky, to say the least.

But Kurzweil says one crucial step on the way to a potential 2045 singularity is the concept of immortality, possibly reached as soon as 2030. And the rapid rise of artificial intelligence is what will make it happen. Kurzweil believes that our technological and medical progress will grow to the point that robotics—he dubs them “nanobots”—will work to repair our bodies at the cellular level, as reported by Lifeboat, turning disease and aging around thanks to the continual work of robotic know-how. And then, voilà: immortality.
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Re: Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby Steve James on Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:55 pm

Immortality. Then what?
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Re: Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby Doc Stier on Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:04 pm

That's certainly a very interesting prediction, but what do think the probability of that actually happening really is? ???

In the meantime, I will continue to nurture an ageless body and a timeless mind through my daily Nei-Kung, Tao-Yin, Yang-Sheng and Yoga practices.

It is undoubtedly better to err on the side of caution in order to be safe, rather than sorry. :)
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Re: Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby Doc Stier on Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:11 pm

Steve James wrote:Immortality. Then what?

Good question. Would you consider physical Immortality to be a blessing or a curse?

Depending on the quality of life and overall health, there are reasonable arguments to support both perspectives.
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Re: Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby Steve James on Tue Mar 14, 2023 3:03 pm

Would you consider physical Immortality to be a blessing or a curse?


If I had to watch my friends and loved-ones die, it'd be a curse. If everyone were immortal, ok. But, there are thousands of people who decide to commit suicide, and there's no cure for gunshots to the head or heart, car accidents, and other things that end life. Anyway, I read statistical research suggesting that 200 years is about the longest a person would live even if diseases were eliminated.

Imo, immortality sounds nice, but it assumes perfect health and living conditions. There's a Greek myth about a person who was granted immortality. The only thing was that his aging wouldn't stop. His body would just continually decay until he was a skeleton walking that couldn't die but couldn't live with anyone either.

Ever heard of Henrietta Lacks, the woman with immortal (cancer) cells? They were the first immortalized human cells. She died in the 50s, but her cell line still exists.

All that said, in terms of survivability, t's better for the species to be mortal. How long that mortality lasts is relative, imo. If it were a thousand years, people would feel the same about the ultimate outcome. I'm happy for the time I get. :)
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Re: Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby everything on Tue Mar 14, 2023 3:32 pm

high ratio of healthspan:lifespan definitely seems more important than just lifespan.

for the "AI singularity" they say there is an "event horizon" because human intelligence is (unmodified) finite. machine intelligence keeps growing. we aren't really fully able to comprehend/speculate what that can mean (beyond the event horizon). trying to think about them together (in a way, they are linked), we are living to 1000, but at that point how much do/can we understand the world, whose innovations create that increased life and health span?

the media likes to point out that Kurzweil's understanding of match and science and based in part on that study, his track record w/ predictions has been very accurate. I think he's saying 2030 is the earliest date for this (engineered) cell immortality.

on a total tangent, the HeLa cells reminds me of The Last of Us plot.
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Re: Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby Steve James on Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:02 am

If we become immortal, what do we do about crime and criminals? What's a life sentence mean?

Anyway, it made me think of the movie Logan's Run. There'll be a need to eliminate people or get them to eliminate themselves. After all, people young enough will continue to bear children -unless they're sterilized.

If immortality means receiving some sort of specialized treatments or medical care, who's going to pay for it for an infinite length of time? Better hope it's affordable. :)
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Re: Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby Doc Stier on Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:00 am

In the Classical Chinese Taoist literature, reference to physical immortality is generally interpreted as the cultivation of physical, mental and spiritual health and wellbeing for as long as one chooses to do so beyond a normal lifespan in order to maximize the opportunity to pursue whatever they are drawn to do with their life, and is not necessarily meant to imply that they will never die.

From that perspective, anyone who is remembered for their writing, teaching, or personal achievements for many decades, centuries or millenia past their physical lifetime has essentially attained a type of immortality. But even this is rare, as most people are forgotten within several successive generations of their own families. How many of us know the names of all our great-grandparents or know what they looked like when they were still alive?

Thus, those who outlive multiple succeeding generations of their family are always the exception, not the norm, in any era of history anywhere on the planet, and are worthy of our admiration and respect, imo. 8-)
Last edited by Doc Stier on Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:26 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby Steve James on Wed Mar 15, 2023 11:11 am

Doc, being remembered is practical immortality. Life, itself, is the embodiment of immortality. Anyway, as they say, "the evil that men do" surely outlives them.
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Re: Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby everything on Wed Mar 15, 2023 2:00 pm

how do we have enough clean food, air, water? how about taking over all the land and water from the other species?

on a side note, there is this nice new tech that could possibly be developed.
https://theweek.com/climate-change/1021 ... aking-soda
(captures carbon from the air, turns it into baking soda, gets put in the ocean)

way too many questions. when there is intelligence that outpaces current human intelligence (machine or cyborg), what questions do they ask and what scenarios do they envision?

great grand-parents:
if you ever do 23andme or ancestry or similar, it's pretty fascinating (from a distance) when you get a "3rd cousin" in your network, and they show you how you might be related (like through a sibling of a great grand-parent for example). most families are not going to be able to track that. I can't even keep up with 1st cousins not removed by a generation. I guess if we live to 200? 1000? we'll know some distant descendents. they'll be using the descendent of myspace/fb/twitter/instagram/tiktok, and we definitely won't get it at all. if you call everyone over 30 a "boomer", what do you call the 200 to 1000 year olds? ;D
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Re: Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby wiesiek on Wed Mar 15, 2023 2:13 pm

hmm,
I would ask you, guys,
is this the same Mr Kurzweil, which designed new synth. sound sound architecture around 80` ?
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Re: Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby Doc Stier on Wed Mar 15, 2023 6:06 pm

everything wrote:. if you call everyone over 30 a "boomer", what do you call the 200 to 1000 year olds? ;D

They are called Immortals. ;)
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Re: Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby everything on Thu Mar 16, 2023 12:39 pm

wiesiek wrote:hmm,
I would ask you, guys,
is this the same Mr Kurzweil, which designed new synth. sound sound architecture around 80` ?


yes, he's had success in many fields
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil
makes a lot of technology field predictions. the human immortality and AI ones are probably the most controversial (but it's hard to think of why journalists or scientists or most people of any type would be more well-placed to make better predictions ... they're sort of "movie critics" and not "film makers" ... may as well start with Kurzweil's. Bill Gates supposedly said he's the best at AI predictions, and Larry Page hired him personally to work at Google. Think those two probably know a thing or two about technology). Anyway, he says a lot of interesting stuff.
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Re: Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby origami_itto on Thu Mar 16, 2023 1:02 pm

everything wrote: if you call everyone over 30 a "boomer", what do you call the 200 to 1000 year olds? ;D


Boomer is a State of mind. It's where everything you don't understand is terrifying and awful and you think everybody who isn't exactly like you is an idiot or socialist or both.
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Re: Kurzweil predicts immortality (2030) and singularity (2045)

Postby Steve James on Thu Mar 16, 2023 2:34 pm

Boomers are people who said "never trust anyone over thirty" when they were younger. Imo, boomers associate their generation with hippies and rockers :). It's true that many of them turned conservative, stogie, and resistant to change. Though, many of them were already conservative already. After all, there were almost as many vets as flower children.

The term is often meant to be derogative, but it doesn't really apply just to people born during a (particularly great) time period.
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