Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

[Steve James]

Is what's happening just a minor dispute between Prigozhin's Wagner group and Russian military? Or, is it the beginning of a coup against Putin? How will it affect the war in Ukraine?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqgcpXu7UD8

[Bao]

It's already over.

From RT:
"17:32 GMT
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has held negotiations with the leader of the mutinous Russian PMC Wagner Group, Evgeny Prigozhin, and found an “absolutely beneficial and acceptable” way to end the crisis. The development was announced by Lukashenko’s press service, with the breakthrough reached after tense “day-long” talks.

The negotiations were conducted after speaking with and in coordination with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the press service noted. Prigozhin has accepted the offer to “stop advancements” of the PMC’s companies across Russia, it added."

Prigozhin has said that it was against Shoigu, but it looks more like a lame coup attempt against Putin.

Wagner PMC has maybe 15-20 000 soldiers left after re-structuring and contracts having expired. So no big loss for the RFA and no impact on the Ukraine conflict.

[windwalker]

No

Wagner boss confirms cancellation of advance on Moscow


not happening



Prigozhin's Wagner Coup in Russia Carl Zha on RT

[Steve James]

Wagner PMC has maybe 15-20 000 soldiers left after re-structuring and contracts having expired. So no big loss for the RFA and no impact on the Ukraine conflict.

The Wagner group is mercenary, with ex-Russian military, conscripted prisoners, and professional contractors. If they don't want to fight, they can just leave.

Anyway, I'm much more comfortable asking questions than making predictions. No one knows the effects it will have on Ukraine, not in 24 hours. All we know is that it was at least an armed mutiny or rebellion. Prigozhin has also stated the reason: i.e., that Russian troops fired on his men, and that the Russian military was using his men as cannon fodder in Ukraine. He's only lots of video making those claims.

It's good if they're not heading to Moscow because there'd be an unnecessary loss of civilian life. Other than that, nobody knows what happens in a war while it happens except those who are there.

[wayne hansen]

It’s just a pay discussion

[windwalker]

Some Points To Consider.

[everything]

I missed the entire news cycle, it seems

[Bao]

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirms that the criminal case against Wagner chief Prigozhin will be dropped. While Prigozhin will go to Belarus (will be sent and stay there?), those in the Wagner PMC who took part in the mutiny will not be prosecuted because of their "frontline merits."

[wiesiek]

This is Russia 100 years after revolution (clvil war).
100 years KGB in his deepest, undercover branch(ess) rooted itself quite deep in all parts of society ...
in the fact "party of friends from the work" is keeping the steering wheels.

Small mess outside is good for business, big mess inside not quite
so
my shot is, civil war in Russia - no, it will not happen.

On 1st glance, this "Ambitious Cook" (Pirigozin) riot looked like under table agreement with Put -in or preparing for small, tactical A-showdown, but now I`m not so sure.
Anyway truth will revival itself in couple of days (weeks?)

[Steve James]

On 1st glance, this "Ambitious Cook" (Pirigozin) riot looked like under table agreement with Put -in or preparing for small, tactical A-showdown, but now I`m not so sure.
Anyway truth will revival itself in couple of days (weeks?)

Prigozhin leaving, imo, doesn't mean much unless it's because his men turned on him or sold out. According to his own videos, the reason for the "march for justice" was that Russia was sending in people to get slaughtered. Not the professional contractors and mercenaries, but prisoners and conscripts who were suffering heavy casualties. I.e., they were doing the war wrong. Prigozhin wants/wanted a change in Russian military leadership, not the end of Putin. It's interesting that Prigozhin went to Belarus, which is a Putin ally.

Reports are that the families of Wagner group members who were killed in combat will receive $60K. I agree with Wayne that there must have been some sort of payoff or payout. The WG may have only had 10K combat soldiers, but they were less than 200K from Moscow, and they met little or no military or popular resistance. Putin and other officials left the city. The WG wasn't weren't chased off or repelled. They just returned to base.

It remains to be seen whether, without Prigozhin, the WG will just fold into the Russian military under Russian control. Afa Ukraine, this will definitely affect the war because it was about the war. That doesn't mean if will affect the eventual outcome.

[Bao]

According to his own videos, the reason for the "march for justice" was that Russia was sending in people to get slaughtered. Not the professional contractors and mercenaries, but prisoners and conscripts who were suffering heavy casualties. I.e., they were doing the war wrong. Prigozhin wants/wanted a change in Russian military leadership, not the end of Putin.

Private military companies are illegal to work within Russia, so when Donbas held referendum to become Russian, PMC Wagner was suddenly illegal. So they turned it into a Ru regiment and Prigozhin had to take orders from Shoigu. His conflict with Shoigu starts here. Prigozhin thought that they didn't get enough weapons and that an unnecessarily amount of his soldiers were killed. So he blames Shoigu. Prigozhin had a meeting with Putin one week ago, but Putin didn't want to renew their contracts to Prigozhin's terms. So he marched towards Moscow to get justice.

It's interesting that Prigozhin went to Belarus, which is a Putin ally.

He is under house-arrest.

Putin and other officials left the city.

Not what I heard.

It remains to be seen whether, without Prigozhin, the WG will just fold into the Russian military under Russian control. Afa Ukraine, this will definitely affect the war because it was about the war. That doesn't mean if will affect the eventual outcome.

Read what I wrote above. PMC Wagner is no longer a private battalion, but already a regiment controlled by Russia Federation's Armed Forces. No change necessary except for a new leader who doesn't desperately crave standing in the limelight all of the time.

[windwalker]

According to his own videos, the reason for the "march for justice" was that Russia was sending in people to get slaughtered. Not the professional contractors and mercenaries, but prisoners and conscripts who were suffering heavy casualties. I.e., they were doing the war wrong. Prigozhin wants/wanted a change in Russian military leadership, not the end of Putin.

Private military companies are illegal to work within Russia, so when Donbas held referendum to become Russian, PMC Wagner was suddenly illegal. So they turned it into a Ru regiment and Prigozhin had to take orders from Shoigu. His conflict with Shoigu starts here. Prigozhin thought that they didn't get enough weapons and that an unnecessarily amount of his soldiers were killed. So he blames Shoigu. Prigozhin had a meeting with Putin one week ago, but Putin didn't want to renew their contracts to Prigozhin's terms. So he marched towards Moscow to get justice.

It's interesting that Prigozhin went to Belarus, which is a Putin ally.

He is under house-arrest.

Putin and other officials left the city.

Not what I heard.

It remains to be seen whether, without Prigozhin, the WG will just fold into the Russian military under Russian control. Afa Ukraine, this will definitely affect the war because it was about the war. That doesn't mean if will affect the eventual outcome.

Read what I wrote above. PMC Wagner is no longer a private battalion, but already a regiment controlled by Russia Federation's Armed Forces. No change necessary except for a new leader who doesn't desperately crave standing in the limelight all of the time.

Interesting how the information realm is controlled


what was said, what happened

[Steve James]

Read what I wrote above. PMC Wagner is no longer a private battalion, but already a regiment controlled by Russia Federation's Armed Forces.

"already controlled" Well, apparently, Wagner won't be charged.

There's no evidence that Prigozhin is under house arrest. Belarus has/had given him citizenship.

Interesting how the information realm is controlled

Yep. If you listened to Tass, Putin said that the rebels would be treated severely. Let's see. What do you think would happen to a US regiment started to march on Washington. What'd be the penalty.

[Bao]

There's no evidence that Prigozhin is under house arrest. Belarus has/had given him citizenship.

True. But I don't think anyone believes he will be allowed to move freely and to do whatever he will. Some say that Belarus wants to use his knowledge and experience, as to train soldiers.

Interesting how the information realm is controlled

Lol! Who are you talking to? Higher up I quoted Russia Today. Everything I wrote on this subject is based on Russian sources. Can't really see no reason to read what western mainstream media has to distort.

what was said, what happened

I've already watched it. I almost always agree with him, but this time I am not totally sure... I thought it was funny how he said that Prigozhin's coup attempt was a gift to Russia, opposite from what Scott Ritter and others have said. Well, Col MacGregor is on George Galloway's MOATS this evening (7PM London PST, 11 AM PDT) https://www.youtube.com/@GeorgeGallowayOfficial/streams, it will be interesting to hear what he has to say.

[windwalker]

Yep. If you listened to Tass, Putin said that the rebels would be treated severely. Let's see. What do you think would happen to a US regiment started to march on Washington. What'd be the penalty.

Let’s not,

engage hypotheticals

or ad-homonym


Information warfare among other things, carried out by the US government
Under the guise of it’s so called Free Press