Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

[Bao]

But, yep, Putin did the right thing. I agree that it's crazy to think that Putin planned it (as some have said on FOX).
Doesn't seem like they like Prigozhin very much, and think he's a traitor.
.

Agreed.

The thing is that Prigozhin made some very strange videos the days before he decided to go out on his protest march. He smeared Russia and lied about the SMO. It felt treacherous, like he was taking the stance of the West. He behaved strange and erratic, some ppl compare it with PTSD, and that might probably be one of the answers. If it was planned with Putin, he would still not act that way or say things that undermined Russia's efforts.

...I sense that someone might have influenced him, and that there might be either a still ongoing power struggle, or that NATO/USA have people inside either the Kremlin or military leadership. But this is obviously only a "hunch" and speculation, nothing I could prove. Anyway, the investigation continues, so maybe we will find out more.

[yeniseri]

aside note

The court found that “whether Calley was the most ignorant person in the United States Army in Vietnam or the most intelligent,” he would have to have known that it was illegal to slaughter civilians who were “demonstrably unable to defend themselves” and that the order was “palpably illegal.”

The court noted that, “For 100 years, it has been a settled rule of American law that even in war the summary killing of an enemy who has submitted … is murder.”

The US and its laws

the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Japan, devastating the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and killing more than 100,000 people.

Wonder if those that dropped the bombs understood the "law" or just followed orders

If there is sufficient vilification of a people, any people, it will alwys be easier to do what one wants because no one will want to stand up when the Other in being decimated.
It does not help when the Other has been content will equal response will all their might and the associated vitrol of propaganda from both sides.

[windwalker]

aside note

The court found that “whether Calley was the most ignorant person in the United States Army in Vietnam or the most intelligent,” he would have to have known that it was illegal to slaughter civilians who were “demonstrably unable to defend themselves” and that the order was “palpably illegal.”

The court noted that, “For 100 years, it has been a settled rule of American law that even in war the summary killing of an enemy who has submitted … is murder.”

The US and its laws

the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Japan, devastating the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and killing more than 100,000 people.

Wonder if those that dropped the bombs understood the "law" or just followed orders

If there is sufficient vilification of a people, any people, it will alwys be easier to do what one wants because no one will want to stand up when the Other in being decimated.
It does not help when the Other has been content will equal response will all their might and the associated vitrol of propaganda from both sides.

The point was that those in the military swear in oath to defend the constitution.
The legality or illegality of an order based on this..

Something those in the military are supposed to be able to decide, and be judged accordingly after the outcome .

Killing people from 30,000 feet, or using standoff weaponry , Seems to be the norm for the US military.

As well as Dropping chemicals “ agent, orange” ect as needed.

Par for the course.

The US has been at war since it’s inception . Maybe the rest of the world understanding this now taking action to rectify the situation.

[Steve James]

The point was that those in the military swear in oath to defend the constitution.
The legality or illegality of an order based on this..

Hmm, I thought the Uniform Code of Military Justice determines what's legal, not the Constitution. Though, true, when it comes to killing Asians, there's often nothing that can be considered illegal. However, there are war crimes and war crime courts. People have argued they were "only following orders," and been executed. If it were just as simple as following orders, Calley would never have been tried. The captain of the Enola Gay, otoh, got a medal. Of course, if Japan had won the war, Truman would have been accused and tried for war crimes.

Since most seem to agree that Prigozhin was treacherous, and a bad guy, there shouldn't be any automatic defense of the atrocities he's ordered his men to commit -as testified to by defectors for PMC Wagner. In Ukraine, that includes killing conscripts who refuse to follow orders or fight. I didn't want Prigozhin to kill any more innocent Russians. He gave an interview earlier saying he regretted shooting down Russian aircraft -because they fired on him.

Hey Bao, I'm sure there are CIA in Russia and FSB in DC. Some they know about; some just diplomats; and most we have no idea. A Soviet minister defected in 2022 because he opposed the SMO (aka the war). It's as likely as there are other dissenters there as there are dissenters to US policies here. In a game where everyone is cheating, it'd be naïve not to think so.

[Steve James]

From Al Jazeera on Prigozhin's tape:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HGXHQ5NErg

[windwalker]

The point was that those in the military swear in oath to defend the constitution.
The legality or illegality of an order based on this..

Hmm, I thought the Uniform Code of Military Justice determines what's legal, not the Constitution. Though, true, when it comes to killing Asians, there's often nothing that can be considered illegal. However, there are war crimes and war crime courts. People have argued they were "only following orders," and been executed. If it were just as simple as following orders, Calley would never have been tried. The captain of the Enola Gay, otoh, got a medal. Of course, if Japan had won the war, Truman would have been accused and tried for war crimes.

"It's generally called a "duty to disobey," and is empowered by the Uniform Code of Military Justice. The UCMJ is more concerned about the need to obey orders, but specifies the conditions when military personnel may feel justified in not following them:

If the order is "contrary to the constitution" or "the laws of the United States."
If the order is "patently illegal, ... such as one that directs the commission of a crime."

Historically the US doesn't have a problem ignoring the paper the Constitution is written on as needed...


anyway,,,,"following orders" or acting "on orders"

is left up to those in the military to decide in accordance with their understanding of the constitution..
To be or not be, judged after the fact...


for example Russia

Vasily Aleksandrovich Arkhipov(Russian: Василий Александрович Архипов, IPA: [vɐˈsʲilʲɪj ɐlʲɪkˈsandrəvʲɪtɕ arˈxʲipəf], 30 January 1926 – 19 August 1998) was a Soviet Naval officer who prevented a Soviet nuclear torpedo launch during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Immediately upon return to Russia, many crew members were faced with disgrace from their superiors. One admiral told them "It would have been better if you'd gone down with your ship." Olga, Arkhipov's wife, said that "he didn't like talking about it, he felt they hadn't appreciated what they had gone through."[16] Each captain was required to present a report of events during the mission to Marshal Andrei Grechko, who substituted for the ill Soviet defense minister.[17]

Saving the world for not following orders

captain of Vincennes, William C. Rogers III, for overly aggressive behavior in a tense and dangerous environment.[10][13] In the days immediately following the incident, President Ronald Reagan issued a written diplomatic note to the Iranian government, expressing deep regret.[14] When Reagan was directly asked if he considered the statement an apology, he replied, "Yes."[14] However, the U.S. continued to insist that Vincennes was acting in "self-defense"..

Rogers remained in command of USS Vincennes until May 27, 1989.[13] In 1990, Captain Rogers was awarded the Legion of Merit decoration "for exceptionally meritorious conduct in the performance of outstanding service as commanding officer ... from April 1987 to May 1989." The award was given for his service as the Commanding Officer of Vincennes, and the citation made no mention of the downing of Iran Air 655.[14]

Others get a medal following orders , one example of many.

[Bao]

... that includes killing conscripts who refuse to follow orders or fight.

Their contract with Wagner say that if they refuse to obey orders or desert, they will be shot on the spot. They are told this before signing and they know what they have signed. They are also, according to their contracts, strictly forbidden to loot, rape or willingly attack civilians.

It's as likely as there are other dissenters there as there are dissenters to US policies here. In a game where everyone is cheating, it'd be naïve not to think so.

Agreed.

[Steve James]

... that includes killing conscripts who refuse to follow orders or fight.

Their contract with Wagner say that if they refuse to obey orders or desert, they will be shot on the spot. They are told this before signing and they know what they have signed. They are also, according to their contracts, strictly forbidden to loot, rape or willingly attack civilians.

Ah, but they've been accused of doing just those things. If mass graves are found, one side will blame the other. However, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has opened an investigation into possible war crimes committed in Ukraine, and the UN Human Rights Council has established a commission of inquiry to investigate the situation. Of course, there are atrocities committed in every war, regardless of the rules.

Afa the Wagner contract, conscripts and prisoners sign under duress, not agreement. Otoh, many of WG's operators/advisors are former Black Water contractors (actually, the have a new name beginning with A, but I forget), as well as ex-Russian special operations. The point is that they're paid very well, so they are there to fight. They're mercenaries. That's why they were called into Ukraine, and why they've had success. They're professionals who sign contracts voluntarily.

Shooting deserters, contract or not, is ancient. Stalin famously ordered it at Stalingrad. In this case, Prigozhin's complaint was that Russia was sending in completely unprepared recruits to get slaughtered in the meat grinder. And for what? He disagreed with the special operation, and says he was protesting the needless loss of life. It might sound like an excuse, but at least he's consistent. And, I bet his professionals agreed. He says he turned his men back in order to spare lives. I'm not trying to imply that he's a humanitarian, or that he's better or worse than Putin. In fact, Prigozhin could be more dangerous if he were in power.

[Bao]

Ah, but they've been accused of doing just those things. If mass graves are found, one side will blame the other. However, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has opened an investigation into possible war crimes committed in Ukraine, and the UN Human Rights Council has established a commission of inquiry to investigate the situation. Of course, there are atrocities committed in every war, regardless of the rules.

Yes we know that mainstream media accuses Wagner in Syria where ISIS resides and in Ukraine when they have left a town and Ukraine's punitive forces arrives. They are well known since 2014. But of course, everything that doesn't look good for Ukraine is hidden away, as Banderites and the overall nazi sentiment, the government's death list where they mark dead journalists and political opponents as "eliminated," and where they hang out 9 and 13 year old girls as "enemies of the state", the Alley of angels in Donetsk, a memorial of +500 children killed by Ukraine shelling, and its page that Wikipedia deleted, their habit of taping people against lamp posts etc, etc.

[Bao]

Thought General Surovikin's comments to Prigozhin's "defense speech" was interesting... :

"Let's talk about Prigorat's 11-minute-long lie collection he posted today.

Statement 1: As a result of intrigues and poor decisions wagner was to be dissolved on 1st July.
> Shouldn't have kept lying about shell shortages constantly.

Statement 2: Commanders refused to sign contracts with the MoD
> Most likely true

Statement 3: 1-2% of Wagnerites signed a contract with the MoD
> Since when is Wagner at least 500k soldiers strong?

Statement 4: MoD blew up our camp
> The video proof looked as fake as Ugandan action movies are.

Statement 5: The Aircraft attacked them first
> 5 aircraft with no weapons at all attacked them somehow.
> The KA-52 was definitely not shot by a Strela-10 before blowing up their truck

Statement 6: 0 KIA on the ground for Russian force
> Except for the 2 soldiers from RuAF, but that is just 2 more than 0

Statement 7: Wagner marched to protest, not to overthrow the government in the country.
> Ignore the fact they occupied all military installations along the way. Also stealing from those installations.

Statement 8: No Wagner fighters were forced to join the campaign, and everyone knew its ultimate goal.
>Yeah, except those who didn't follow you were threatened by your commanders with beatings, death, etc.

Statement 9: Wagner marched the distance from Kiev to Uzhgorod in a day and that if Ru MoD didn't fuck up it would have been a 1-day SMO
> Did he get ambushed at all? Did he have to fight civilians with AK-74s throwing Molotov cocktails at them?

Verdict: Pathological liar and an attention-seeking wh0r3, who should be sentenced for the murder of at least 17 soldiers 15 of whom were airmen, armed resistance, terrorism, treason, etc."

https://twitter.com/_Surovikin_/status/ ... 2211629060

[Steve James]

Re: Prigozhin's comments. It's too easy to say he's lying. You've made several statements as if they're factual, but it's only something someone has told you. I could easily say that Putin is just lying, or that everything he says is true. Both could be correct, but I can't make pretend to know the facts of what happened on the ground in Russia two days ago. The claim as to who shot first or why is something we may never know, but it's obvious that both sides will blame the other.

Wagner did occupy military installations on the way, and afwk they're still there. The big question is leadership and what happens to it in other places, like Africa and Syria. They bodyguard several African leaders, and it's true they fight against ISIL and other terrorist groups there. That's the question for the organization, not for Russia or any internal problems. All countries have those. Anyway, it's only Monday.

Pathological liars often do quite well as politicians.

[windwalker]

The movie

what could happen

Russians, mutiny, questions of law and authority.

What did happen

Reality

Arkhipov was only second-in-command of the B-59, he was the Commodore of the entire submarine flotilla, which included the B-4, the B-36 and the B-130.[11] According to author Edward Wilson, the reputation Arkhipov had gained from his courageous conduct in the previous year's K-19 incident played a large role in the debate to launch the torpedo.[9] Arkhipov eventually persuaded Savitsky to surface and await orders from Moscow.

His persuasion effectively averted a nuclear war which likely would have ensued if the nuclear weapon had been fired.

[Quigga]

No, I don't think there will be civil war. There's too little to gain for the average Russian fellow and too much to lose. Also, the force that potentially may want to overthrow Russia's power structure isn't convincing nor promising enough. They need a better PR department.

[everything]

wars don't seem to necessarily start for rational reasons or do they? (I know, I know, "follow the money")

[origami_itto]

Always about money, and the people fighting aren't getting any of it.