Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

[roger hao]

So the same logic applies to vaccines. We will need an endless chain
of improved vaccines to keep up. Nice business for those selling vaccines.
Or...............we may never have an effective vaccine.

[roger hao]

Is this for real?

Global Deaths - Jan 01 - March 30 2020
Coronavirus - 35,016
Moms at childbirth - 75,645
Seasonal Flu - 118,980
Malaria - 240,056
Suicide - 262,441
Traffic accident - 330,367
HIV - 411,415
Alcohol - 612,105
Smoking - 1,223,439
Cancer - 2,009,990

[Giles]

So the same logic applies to vaccines. We will need an endless chain
of improved vaccines to keep up. Nice business for those selling vaccines.
Or...............we may never have an effective vaccine.

Not necessarily. But we simply don't know yet.

Professor Stuart Tangye, Head of Immunity and Inflammation at the Garvan Institute, previously told newsGP the body’s response to COVID-19 suggests any vaccine-derived immunity may be limited in the same way influenza vaccines are seasonal and need to be boosted each year.

Professor Dale Godfrey, Immunology Theme Leader at the Doherty Institute, said research showing poor natural immunity against COVID-19 does not necessarily mean that a vaccine will also fail to induce quality long-term protection.

‘It’s quite possible that vaccines will be able to do a lot more about inducing a good, potent long-term memory response than the actual infection itself,’ he told newsGP.

‘The virus that causes COVID has inhibitory proteins that shut down a lot of our normal immune processes but vaccines can be designed where only a part of a virus is provided, like part of the spike, while adjuvants – molecules that can really enhance immune responses – can be provided as well.

‘You can tip the balance towards a much stronger immune response without all those virus inhibitory proteins that might be trying to inhibit the immune response.’

Source: https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/more-evidence-suggests-no-long-term-covid-19-immun

Even getting a Covid-19 jab once every year, and even if this bestows, say, only 70% immunity, would be hugely preferable to the current situation. And such a 'non-guaranteed' protection should still be enough to generate a workable herd immunity, as long as enough people do actually get vaccinated.
I've had an annual flu vaccination for most of the recent years, nothing to it.

If pharmaceutical companies which come up with a workable, effective, safe vaccine for coronavirus - and which update this every year - subsequently make a (long-term) profit by selling it, I would have no problem with that. That doesn't mean they have to get involved in price gouging / ripping people off. The many millions, or even billions, that governments might pay for one of more vaccines of this type will be fully worthwhile as compared to the far greater economic costs of a continued or resurgent pandemic. Governments should pay a lump sum, citizens should get the vaccine for free.

[Giles]

Is this for real?

Global Deaths - Jan 01 - March 30 2020
Coronavirus - 35,016
Moms at childbirth - 75,645
Seasonal Flu - 118,980
Malaria - 240,056
Suicide - 262,441
Traffic accident - 330,367
HIV - 411,415
Alcohol - 612,105
Smoking - 1,223,439
Cancer - 2,009,990

Quite probably for real. But unmeaningful as a basis for comparison. Taking the coronavirus deaths for the FIRST quarter of this year - as do these figures - and basing an (implicit) argument on this, right now, is like taking the number of war-related deaths from, say, September 1,1939 to May 9, 1940 and then saying the Second World War obviously wasn't that serious.

Go to this page if you like https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths and scroll down a little. There you'll find a graph across which you can move the cursor left and right, showing the total global deaths for any day this year. The real deaths are certainly higher as the page itself points out, but even then we get a rather larger figure for the SECOND quarter of 2020: around 526,000. Also note the continued steep rise of the line on the graph. Meaning that the third quarter will probably turn out much higher again. And that's WITH effective mitigation measures in many countries (although less effective mitigation in others).

In fact, if the line continues on roughly its present course, then the total coronavirus deaths for the THIRD quarter would be somewhere between 7 million and 8 million.
So in that sense, if one considers the rise in global coronavirus deaths since March 30 and compares these to the other death statistics, which can be assumed to be relatively stable quarter for quarter, it actually underlines the seriousness of the pandemic and the need to take mitigatory action.

[Steve James]

Global Deaths - Jan 01 - March 30 2020
Coronavirus - 35,016

That could be true. However, the global death total three months later is 568K. Actually, when this thread started, there were just 100 deaths in all 50 states, and it was a big deal.

Ya know, 10 to 15K children die every day from hunger and/or disease. However, that's an argument that falls flat if your family member is in the hospital.

[everything]

Is this for real?

Global Deaths - Jan 01 - March 30 2020
Coronavirus - 35,016
Moms at childbirth - 75,645
Seasonal Flu - 118,980
Malaria - 240,056
Suicide - 262,441
Traffic accident - 330,367
HIV - 411,415
Alcohol - 612,105
Smoking - 1,223,439
Cancer - 2,009,990

Quite probably for real. But unmeaningful as a basis for comparison. Taking the coronavirus deaths for the FIRST quarter of this year - as do these figures - and basing an (implicit) argument on this, right now, is like taking the number of war-related deaths from, say, September 1,1939 to May 9, 1940 and then saying the Second World War obviously wasn't that serious.

Go to this page if you like https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths and scroll down a little. There you'll find a graph across which you can move the cursor left and right, showing the total global deaths for any day this year. The real deaths are certainly higher as the page itself points out, but even then we get a rather larger figure for the SECOND quarter of 2020: around 526,000. Also note the continued steep rise of the line on the graph. Meaning that the third quarter will probably turn out much higher again. And that's WITH effective mitigation measures in many countries (although less effective mitigation in others).

In fact, if the line continues on roughly its present course, then the total coronavirus deaths for the THIRD quarter would be somewhere between 7 million and 8 million.
So in that sense, if one considers the rise in global coronavirus deaths since March 30 and compares these to the other death statistics, which can be assumed to be relatively stable quarter for quarter, it actually underlines the seriousness of the pandemic and the need to take mitigatory action.

This was my main point a page or so ago. People are NOT comparing correctly. It would be like seeing a Ferrari at 30 mph for a half second, and then concluding it must not be faster than a Camry because the Camry was also traveling at 30 at that moment.

But we prepare as if the numbers from March are the permanent numbers, then react again in July, rather than preparing and avoiding these kinds of terrible THIRD quarter scenarios. WTF. Or we stuck our heads in the sand, regardless of whether we were stupid enough to think it was a hoax. Like that guy who died after going to a "covid party" (that's the kind of thing that sends me on the "stupid" rant).

[everything]

Is this for real?

Global Deaths - Jan 01 - March 30 2020
Coronavirus - 35,016
Moms at childbirth - 75,645
Seasonal Flu - 118,980
Malaria - 240,056
Suicide - 262,441
Traffic accident - 330,367
HIV - 411,415
Alcohol - 612,105
Smoking - 1,223,439
Cancer - 2,009,990

Quite probably for real. But unmeaningful as a basis for comparison. Taking the coronavirus deaths for the FIRST quarter of this year - as do these figures - and basing an (implicit) argument on this, right now, is like taking the number of war-related deaths from, say, September 1,1939 to May 9, 1940 and then saying the Second World War obviously wasn't that serious.

Go to this page if you like https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths and scroll down a little. There you'll find a graph across which you can move the cursor left and right, showing the total global deaths for any day this year. The real deaths are certainly higher as the page itself points out, but even then we get a rather larger figure for the SECOND quarter of 2020: around 526,000. Also note the continued steep rise of the line on the graph. Meaning that the third quarter will probably turn out much higher again. And that's WITH effective mitigation measures in many countries (although less effective mitigation in others).

In fact, if the line continues on roughly its present course, then the total coronavirus deaths for the THIRD quarter would be somewhere between 7 million and 8 million.
So in that sense, if one considers the rise in global coronavirus deaths since March 30 and compares these to the other death statistics, which can be assumed to be relatively stable quarter for quarter, it actually underlines the seriousness of the pandemic and the need to take mitigatory action.

This was my main point a page or so ago. People are NOT comparing correctly. It would be like seeing a Ferrari at 30 mph for a half second, and then concluding it must not be faster than a Camry because the Camry was also traveling at 30 at that moment.

But we prepare as if the numbers from March are the permanent numbers, then react again in July, rather than preparing and avoiding these kinds of terrible THIRD quarter scenarios. WTF. Or we stuck our heads in the sand, regardless of whether we were stupid enough to think it was a hoax. Like that guy who died after going to a "covid party" (that's the kind of thing that sends me on the "stupid" rant).

[roger hao]

Deaths second quarter decreasing - third quarter trend is also decreasing -

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

[everything]

Deaths second quarter decreasing - third quarter trend is also decreasing -

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

deaths are a "lagging indicator" so we don't know yet what happens as cases accelerate.

[everything]

here's a good explanation of "case fatality rate" and how it can cause people to both overestimate risk of death as well as underestimate the risk.

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-ri ... ality-rate

[Trick]

Deaths second quarter decreasing - third quarter trend is also decreasing -

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

deaths are a "lagging indicator" so we don't know yet what happens as cases accelerate.

It it’s a good “indicator” on how many has died and by what cause

[Trick]

Deaths second quarter decreasing - third quarter trend is also decreasing -

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

it doesn’t matter whatever you’ll post about how covid19 is successfully battled (or by it self diminish), people here want intricate statistics preferably in combination with mathematical equations of at least college level....simple numbers even from reliable sources won’t count.....

[everything]

[roger hao]

Anti-body tests are turning up negative.
Hi-liting auto-immune issues

[Steve James]

Well, we may never know now that all the CDC data has to go through the WH first.

Anyway, if you aren't hearing ambulance sirens all day, and your hospitals are not full, you probably have no clue from hearing the statistics.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtsSMKMBZNk