Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

[Michael]

for those in China, have any visibility on this?

This overseas Chinese woman living in NYC posted two vids about it yesterday on her twitter, and she usually puts them up on her youtube as well.

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfirnX ... X36npwaE3A

[Giles]

As regards German culture and 'obedience', I had to smile a little when I read the remarks here. It's all relative, of course, and I'm sure that there is tendency toward more 'order' than in some other countries. But here in Germany there is considerable debate and also controversy in society, both among various economic and medical experts and also in civil society (online comments sections for newspapers, magazines etc.), about the direction we should collectively be taking as regards shop/business closures, limitations on going outside etc. Still, it's true that the great majority of people are observing the basic rules at the moment, but out of a sense of responsibility and solidarity. And of the others, most of these are only bending the rules now and again, only a few are openly or secretly flouting the rules altogether. But there are some, as indicated by news reports. And those are only the ones who get caught, of course.
If general observance of the emergency rules is to continue, then here in Germany too it will have to be on the basis of widespread (albeit not total) consensus and not because "vee are Chermans, zo vee vill obey ze autorities!". That won't cut the mustard here either.

The Swiss Germans are something else again, although they are not homegenous either. The issue of pedestrian traffic lights (little green and red men, corresponding to Walk/Don't Walk) can be illuminating here:
- in the UK the little men have 'advisory' function only, so even if the red man shows you can legally cross the road if no traffic is coming.
- in Germany ignoring the red man is an Ordnungswidrigkeit (infraction) and can, theoretically, get you a minor fine if a policeman sees you doing it. The great majority of people obey the red man, certainly if there is any traffic around and they won't nip through any gaps in the traffic and will probably wait anyway. Also (what I do) if there is any chance that children might see you doing this, and be led by example. They don't have the competence to judge when one can safely bend the rule or not. But at times of day or at moments where there are clearly no approaching cars, not even 100 yards away, and few people around, and maybe you're in a hurry, many people will then ignore the red man.
- in German-speaking Switzerland, I was walking in a smaller town around midnight, approaching a crossing point and experienced this: Streets totally free of traffic. You would hear a car coming at least a minute before it arrived. Three young people returning from a club or bar stop in front of me as the little red man appears. It's a long phase, I think at least a minute, maybe two minutes go by. It's as quiet as the grave, zeros traffic, no one else around, all you can hear is the sound of gentle drizzle on the paving stones. Red man, the people wait. I would have already crossed, but I'm observing with interest. Then finally the green man appears and the people cross. (This was in the 1980s, so no surveillance cameras around back then). That's not German, but it is Swiss German.

[Steve James]

Ja, I was riding my bike in Zurich at around ten o'clock at night. I was going to the banhof to buy something at the machines. While riding back to Lindenstrasse, an elderly lady who was walking alone came over, grabbed by handlebars and told me to get off. Du muss lampli Haben! She wouldn't let go unless I got off. The thing about waiting for light is also true. But it also applies to cars and crosswalk lines.

Now, East Germany in the 90s was completely different. Hey Giles, it'd be great to have a beer and share stories. Spot on that Germans are not homogeneous. In fact, there is active cultural resistance to authority. They are often in the vanguard.

[Giles]

Hey Giles, it'd be great to have a beer and share stories. Spot on that Germans are not homogeneous. In fact, there is active cultural resistance to authority. They are often in the vanguard.

Ah, if the universe should be kind to us, then maybe one day...



But before we derail, let's get back to, ta-daaah!

[Steve James]

I found this site focusing on Texas. Here's the situation there as of yesterday. https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03/02 ... n-antonio/

As of March 27, Texas reports at least 1,731 coronavirus cases

The Texas Department of State Health Services is tracking COVID-19 cases in Texas by county. The numbers are reported by local health officials and may not represent all cases of the disease given limited testing capacity.

State data released March 27 shows that as of 8 p.m. March 26, there were at least 1,731 coronavirus cases in Texas. There were 23 reported deaths. At least 23,666 tests have been run.
County # of cases Deaths
Dallas 367 7
Harris 203 2
Travis 137 0
Bexar 113 5
Tarrant 100 1
Collin 88 1
Fort Bend 86 0
Denton 83 1

The number 1,731 is almost the same as the total number of cases in the US 14 days ago exactly. Just for your consideration.

[bailewen]

Also, you can predict the stock market. Please make your fortune and hire me as a token gweilo to help you count the mad stacks

In general no, except that I can predict that if you just hold onto your index fund for another 5 years, you'll be back in the black.

No. There's no way I could normally make a month to month prediction of the market, but this was a special case, a case that had nothing to do with finances, just the super ultra obvious that the US was unprepared and we were gonna be fuuuuuucked.

Now how long the bear market lasts or how deep it drops, I have no idea, but it was clearly going to take a massive hit.

I admit there are clearly things about the virus we cannot predict, but we have a TON of data at this point and, well, science is real...


And I didn't make a killing or anything. I just hedged my bets. I took 25% of my money and moved it from a standard index fund to a leveraged reverse fund to reduce the volatility. My main hope is just to get through this with most of my funds intact, because, and this is another prediction, the market will likely shoot up really fast if/when this is over as the entire thing is artificial. But of course the wild card is that it's hard to tell how much permanent damage will have been done. How many people will lose their homes? How many small businesses will just be gone permanently? \

Timing markets is normally impossible, but watching the US media downplay this thing made it sort of a no-brainer this time. ..as far as when it would crash. When it will recover? I have no idea.

Your point is that the world is uncertain and we need a fair bit of historical data before was can start making predictions.

My point is that we actually have an ENORMOUS amount of historical data on this already, and every serious medical expert in the world has been in strong agreement about how this would go. The only question was what actions we would. If A, then B would follow. If not A, then C would follow. That has been the very clear message from those who study this stuff.

So if Trump "opens the country" (whatever that means exactly, I'm not sure), but if he comes on TV and encourages everyone to "get back to business", then his supporters will mostly do that. And if they do that, we will see 10's of 1,000's of deaths. I currently expect we will see at least 80,000 deaths from corona before this is over, and I would not be surprised to see a million, but my current prediction is more like 80,000 - 100,000 deaths. We took about a month to go from 100 cases to 100,000, and now we are at a little over 1,000 deaths. So if things keep going this way, I expect a similar pattern. 100,000 cases will probably become a million and 1,000 deaths will probably become 100,000. The only thing slowing it down is that as people die, the skeptics will get on board, and when that happens, the US will finally mobilize like nobody's business and we'll probably see some crazy medical breakthroughs.

But we have clearly not yet reached that tipping point. We currently are more afraid of being poor than dead.

[everything]

bailewen, great job on the markets.

Giles, thanks for those stories and clarifications on some German and Swiss German culture.

[Trick]

such intimate control technology will come with offers to good to refuse for most, and the most obvious right now is that it will be for our own safety

LOL. Sounds like Big Brother to me.

as i read today one headline on swedish state TV webpage - "Big brother protect you"

[Trick]

what do you value most - "your privet life or your health"

[windwalker]

So if Trump "opens the country" (whatever that means exactly, I'm not sure), but if he comes on TV and encourages everyone to "get back to business", then his supporters will mostly do that. And if they do that, we will see 10's of 1,000's of deaths.

Might want to go back and understand what actually he was saying and doing.
No not a supporter, of anyone in particular do agree with the direction and policies.

He has to set a target date for which the country and people can work towards. This could change.

Not all areas of the country are affected equally. The federal government is responsible for the borders of the Country as a whole , the governors are responsible for what happens within their state.

Just as in some states the governors outlawed the use of the malaria drugs until they are approved by the FDA for use. And others they are currently conducting testing using the drug.

There is talk of setting up some type of website by the federal government where the country will be divided into zones with guidance specific to each zone that will change as conditions change.



Forecast for the Mortality rate is being adjusted downward, as more information is known the modeling being adjusted to actual events. Seems like one of the unique problems with this virus is that many people are asymptomatic. Not the same as with SARS or MERS, if one got one of those viruses there was no doubt about it. The mortality rates where very high compared to the current virus.

[Trick]

what do you value most - "your privet life or your health"

[windwalker]

what do you value most - "your privet life or your health"

An interesting question considering the federal government had to mandate that private labs share their information with the government regarding test results for the virus. One would’ve thought they would’ve done it voluntarily.
.

[Steve James]

Hmm, the federal response as opposed to the state's response.

WASHINGTON — Sen. Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, says that Trump administration officials declined an offer of early congressional funding assistance that he and other senators made on Feb. 5 during a meeting to discuss the coronavirus.

The officials, including Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, said they “didn’t need emergency funding, that they would be able to handle it within existing appropriations,” Murphy recalled in an interview with Yahoo News’ “Skullduggery” podcast.

“What an awful, horrible catastrophic mistake that was,” Murphy said.

On Feb. 5, Murphy tweeted: “Just left the Administration briefing on Coronavirus. Bottom line: they aren't taking this seriously enough. Notably, no request for ANY emergency funding, which is a big mistake. Local health systems need supplies, training, screening staff etc. And they need it now.”

Murphy told Yahoo News that the funding he and other congressional leaders wanted to allocate nearly two months ago would have paid for essential preventative measures, including hiring local screening and testing staff, researching a vaccine and treatments and the stockpiling of needed medical supplies.

Connecticut is so undersupplied that officials have had to cut back on tests administered even as suspected new infections are surging, Murphy said, calling the forced reduction in testing “an abomination.”

Murphy said Connecticut has been particularly challenged in trying to build up its supply of re-agents, the compounds needed to run coronavirus tests. Re-agents are mostly manufactured abroad, and Murphy said “the whole world is competing” for them now.

The senator said he spent part of Thursday on the phone with a lab official in Connecticut who said he cannot administer enough tests due to the re-agent shortage.

“Had we appropriated money in February to start buying re-agent, we would be in a position to do many more tests today than we are,” Murphy said. ”It was just so clear to us that the administration didn't think this was going to be a problem. We begged them in that meeting to request emergency funding from the Congress and they told us ... that they had everything that they needed on hand, which was false.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... li=BBnbfcL

The states are directly responsible for their inhabitants when it comes to health issues. The federal government controls the CDC and every agency that researches diseases.

Imo, if the above mistake was made, the states had no way to adjust or prepare. If they believed the feds, they would have no reason to. If they didn't, they didn't have the resources to prepare or cope. But, the problem is the reason that the federal government was reluctant to act. If this is a war, the states can't take care of themselves. I thought we were all in this "together."

Btw, Rhode Island's governor has ordered a house to house search for New Yorkers, who will then be isolated for 14 days. They may even be out by Easter! https://www.foxnews.com/us/rhode-island ... rus-refuge

I can see it now. Officers in hazmat outfits escorting people out of their vacation homes and putting them in detention centers. Hopefully, they'll just put ankle monitors on them and require them to stay inside.

[Michael]

@ bailewen

Respex, man. You put your money where your mouth is on the stocks. I'm glad it came out well for you.

I understand your logic on all the other points; I think it's valid.

I have to make a case against the reliability of Chinese numbers and against the predictability of corona virus.

[everything]

a nice quote.