Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

[windwalker]

Look man, you don't make policy, so at the end of the day, your opinion on this is not that important. I put my money where my mouth is. I invested in the stock market collapsing, which is has done. I predict we will see at least a million more cases in the US and significantly more death than anything since the "Spanish" flu. I also predict the economy will spiral out of control, the market will tank worse than it did in '08 and the unemployment rate will be near double what we saw back then. Let's just check back in a couple months and see which one of us is right.

wow my bother, you don't make policy either, am I missing something.

I thought we were just conversing, guess not....We do have different opinions.
yours seems to be negative...mine I would say neutral

sure we can check it out in a little while....say like 2 weeks.
my hope and expectations would be that things will start trending up..
it could go the other way.

we will see.

later

[grzegorz]

Watch "Donald Trump's coronavirus timeline: how the President’s message has changed" on YouTube

https://youtu.be/HvE9hCZ-jaU

[windwalker]

Many criticized, but the problem is that you insist on spreading false information and supporting it. IF that's what you learned from being on the front lines fighting H1N1 and building military hospitals, etc., then there's nothing to say. You've repeated all the incorrect memes and for the same sad reason. To defend Trump's words and deeds. See, even if the real experts are wrong, it's safer to believe them, and better to be safe than sorry.

Feel free to correct.....you and others seem to equate whats happening with your feelings towards the president.
somehow thinking that anyone agreeing with his actions is also supporting him...talking points....funny....anyone with a different view
is using talking points. but those who have the same view do not...got it....comrade .

Besides, agreeing with the people who take it too seriously only means stay out of contact with lots of people. It could save someone's life. So, think of it as something you can do for the country. You know, like the butterfly beating its wings across the ocean, you could save someone's life here.

Btw, I do believe that the president is doing the best that he can do. To say it's the best anyone else could have done is quite some speculation. But, okay. The numbers will be the numbers, no matter who understands. It's simple. Check tomorrow. If the numbers start to go down, then what he did in the past worked. If they go up, then saying he did enough or more than anyone else is meaningless. Sure, if he'd done less, the numbers would be higher.

They are expected to go up,,,as the back log of tested people is worked through and as more people are tested.
I look at deaths due to the virus and recovering people.

Btw, when he stopped travel from China, the virus must have already spread to the Koreas, and to Europe. Travelers from there carried it around the world, making it a pandemic.

Sure, one could argue that immediate quarantining of an area and restriction of travel is best. The problem is simple. By the time anyone knows there is a new strain of something, someone has gotten sick enough to need a doctor. At the same time, everyone he's met has already been infected. Otoh, there are lots of people who are infected but do not show any symptoms. That's what's happening here right now. It's not political.

why make it so?



The initial problem was the way it was first handled.

Initially, doctors thought the virus was not communicable between humans, but cases of infection across the country, including among people who have not been to Wuhan, indicated person-to-person infection.

China arrested 8 for spreading ‘hoaxes’ about what is now known as coronavirus. What happened to them?

https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2 ... to-prison/

We hope people can avoid going to Wuhan if possible and that people in Wuhan can stay there,” said Zeng Guang, the chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the leader of a government team of experts responding to the outbreak. “This is not a call from the officials but a suggestion from us in the expert team,” he said.

Still, Zeng said it was “inevitable” that the virus would continue to spread as people moved around the country for the Lunar New Year on Saturday.

The Ministry of Transport estimates that 400 million people will be on the move, making a total of 3 billion trips in this period.

[/quote]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

In Korea, and other areas it seems to be flattening out.

hope for the best prepare for the worst...
should be clear in a little while.

[grzegorz]

In Korea, and other areas it seems to be flattening out.

hope for the best prepare for the worst...
should be clear in a little while.

Interesting how South Korea and in particular Taiwan stopped the spread of pandemic, had less time than we had, got the same info we have and didn't just whine and blame the PRC but took action instead.

Maybe we can learn what real leadership looks like from them.

[Steve James]

It seems obvious that simply taking it seriously earlier would have been better. Yeah, the numbers will go up as more people are tested. That's exactly what most have been saying. There's no defense for saying that it's not serious, or that it's like the flu, or that people don't care about the number of people who die from the flu. If only one percent of the people who get it die, the more people who get it, the more will die. All we can hope for is that a million people don't get it. But, if so, the numbers would end up close to the H1N1 figures. If it's ten million, it's likely that there'll be 100K deaths. You must get the point that if 100 million people are infected, even if only half a percent get it, that's half a million people.

I'm not quite as pessimistic as bailewen because there's a concerted effort here in nyc to limit the spread. Now, we're waiting to see whether we reach our peak sooner, and run out of icu units; or, whether the delay will allow more resources to be gathered. Hopefully, it'll be the latter. Flattening the curve works if there are enough beds and personnel.

Also, even though people can compare the symptoms of covid-18 to the flu, irnm, people die from complications caused by the flu. I.e., they die from pneumonia or ARDS, and they suffocate. That's why respirators are needed so badly. I've had pneumonia twice --as a child and as an adult. Both started after a bout of a common cold.

Unfortunately the US is now the fastest to double cases (every 2.1 days). Italy and Iran are improving their rate now.

Yep. The Italy news is great, though they just recorded their highest number of deaths yesterday, well over six hundred. But, if the rate of confirmed cases levels out, that's good news. However, the chart is from early March, not recent. This site shows the percentages (for anyone interested)
https://ncov2019.live/
https://ncov2019.live/

[windwalker]

The federal government has to act through the states which are managed and controlled by their governors.
In many cases until very recently working against the federal government that they now say should act.
Conversely many of the same governors are now saying the federal government is doing all it can in supporting them in their efforts to mitigate and contain the virus.

Some mention Korea and Taiwan as examples their central government does not have to act through any other type of government to do what it needs to do .

In Taiwan‘s case SARS relatively recent many lessons learned from this event .
Being an island nation and the type of government and culture they have isolation and quarantine is a little bit more direct and easier.

[grzegorz]

So when the President finally handles this just like Taiwan and South Korea what will you say then? That he was waiting for a phone call from China?

[Steve James]

The problem is that he listened to his hunch that the virus would not be bad, or as windy is saying now, that it won't be as bad as the seasonal flu. I.e., according to Trump's opinion at the beginning of March, there'll only be 22K deaths. Before this, no one was blaming him for that number or how "he" handled it. That's because "he" had no hand in it. It was all CDC run. Besides, why put his brand on it anyway?

Then, he was warned about the covid19 virus. He stopped travel from China, but what did he do in the US? He kept saying it wouldn't be serious here. His supporters at FOX news (except one) repeated what he said. He then put Pence in charge of a task force over the CDC chief. All reports from the CDC came through the WH. Watch his news briefing. FEMA is there; the surgeon general is there; the CDC isn't. Dr. Fauci constantly has to correct what the president says. If this were The Apprentice, he'd be fired.

[Trick]

In looking at the numbers still trying to understand the deadliness of this virus vs
The mitigation measures undertaken.

That is exactly the problem. Not China.

For one who recently assigned blame.
The comment is strange.

Had China reported it when it was first noted and allowed outside investigation to understand it.
Much of what is happening now may have been averted.

There are other factors wrapped up into the reporting that are not entirely caused by the virus.
By day 15 as the administration stipulated there should be some clear trend lines.

this thread is rolling to fast for me now when the virus has hit the US. however this has come up a little here and there in the thread.....the "virus" lab that is located in wuhan(some in the thread call it a bio weapon lab, as if they would now about that ) has for a long time worked together with foreign scientists on regular basis, mainly from africa and india. european and american virology institutes/labs/scientists has had a presence here in china at least ever since the sars outbreak including one of the foremost foreign reserch institutes on corona viruses who has a ultra modern lab located in shandong.. so foreign specialists in this field has been around here at least since the mid 2000

[Trick]

so in the thread now it seem to be a lot about the US......How about you that are in europe/EU , is EU as an body taking actions or is it each to their own ?

[Giles]

My point maybe been misunderstood is that other things like the flu kill many people in a short amount of time but are not as publicized in or reacted to the same way.

Personally I don’t think the mortality rate will be much higher than the flu, maybe even a little lower than past pandemics, that did not promote the same type of reactions as what we were seeing now. Could be wrong, it’s too early to tell.

Well, if we just stay with current facts and avoid any politics or predictions or negotiable lists of figures: Doctors in hospitals in Italy and now also in Spain (and in the Alsace region of France, which has also been hit hard and early) are all saying, summarized: “We have never seen anything like this before, not in living memory. [Meaning: saw nothing comparable during any of the more serious flu epidemics. And some of these doctors are already close to retirement age.] We are being completely overwhelmed, we have never seen so many people dying in such numbers in such a short time, we are at breaking point or even beyond, despite all the measures taken so far, and still the new patients keep flooding in."

This is itself makes it quite clear that the pandemic is not on the same level as any flu epidemic/pandemic in recent generations. These reports/statements are far more significant than tables and statistics from countries where the exponential growth has not kicked in yet.
When you say that personally you think that the mortality rate may be even a little lower than past pandemics, you are (hopefully) right if you also include 1918/19. Otherwise...?

One of the main points of why I wonder what’s going on.

Ah, there's a fine question, or implication. Not expressed outright, but the undertone resonates. Yes, what's really going on? Is all not as it seems? Is there a ..... hidden agenda ?!? Are mayhap strange forces at work...? Stay tuned for more startling revelations.

[windwalker]

having been through and participated in something like this directly in the 70s.
At that time bad decisions were made based on a call for action any type of action.
The vaccine developed was eventually scrapped.

It’s not a matter of doing what the other countries do it is a matter of how to do it
using our system of government. In reading a lot of the regulatory agencies in the beginning also acted as roadblocks in any type of swift response or action. Only the federal government has the ability to cut through the bureaucracy and mandate swift actions.

Dr. Facie, has repeatedly said that this administration has reacted to the situation better then past administrations
that his role the administration are different, not contradictory .

talking points, or a different view point
based on different experiences .

Be well comrades.

[Steve James]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST0GiHw ... tmmLAt%3A6

[windwalker]

this thread is rolling to fast for me now when the virus has hit the US. however this has come up a little here and there in the thread.....the "virus" lab that is located in wuhan(some in the thread call it a bio weapon lab, as if they would now about that ) has for a long time worked together with foreign scientists on regular basis, mainly from africa and india. european and american virology institutes/labs/scientists has had a presence here in china at least ever since the sars outbreak including one of the foremost foreign reserch institutes on corona viruses who has a ultra modern lab located in shandong.. so foreign specialists in this field has been around here at least since the mid 2000

In reading and looking at different sites this is also my understanding that the scientists in the field have been working very closely together despite what is sometimes noted in the media.
At the local level the US has also experienced the same type of reactions by various agencies that did not heed the warning‘s of some of their local scientist. In some cases requesting more data than what was available at the time for them to make a decision.

The reactions and actions taken by China are very reminiscent of Chernobyl and Russia.
Luckily being the type of government they are they were able to unite their forces and directly act in unison to prevent the spread of it in China more than it would be.

Probably more important they’re able to control the information and their social media.
In China a lot of the US press has been asked to leave.

[Giles]

the "virus" lab that is located in wuhan(some in the thread call it a bio weapon lab, as if they would now about that ) has for a long time worked together with foreign scientists on regular basis, mainly from africa and india. european and american virology institutes/labs/scientists has had a presence here in china at least ever since the sars outbreak including one of the foremost foreign reserch institutes on corona viruses who has a ultra modern lab located in shandong.. so foreign specialists in this field has been around here at least since the mid 2000

Before another conspiracy theory gains too much traction here... Here's an excerpt from a text I translated from Dutch back at the end of January, an interview with two virologists at Infectious Diseases and Immunology (Faculty of Veterinary Medicine), University of Utrecht (at the time when some people were claiming the virus came from snakes):

“This [new corona]virus almost certainly derives from bats and it is genetically almost identical to a virus that has previously been found in bats. But we still don’t know if this virus comes to us straight from bats or via another mammal. The story now doing the rounds that the virus comes from snakes is without foundation and isn’t backed up by the analysis of the genetic material.”
I can provide the source reference if desired.

If this was some kind of 'genetically engineered' virus, I'm pretty damn sure that these and many other independently working virologists would have picked up on any kind of strangeness, any kind of gene splicing or anomalies. Nada. So no evidence whatsoever to doubt that the virus emerged from the 'wildlife market' environments all on its little own initiative. And then was able to start spreading so effectively because the (local) Chinese authorities initially went into complete denial.

But if you're not implying that the virus might have emerged from a lab somewhere, then please excuse me for the misunderstanding. All good.