Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

[everything]

I tried to read one of them but it's just rationalism about the people rising up against lockdowns. It made absolutely zero sense. It sounded intelligent on the face of the words, but the arguments are ridiculous. Again, it's just proof people are stupid from my point of view. Astounding.

[Ian C. Kuzushi]

Just imagine, if it weren't for Covidiots and the Executive purposely ignoring the pandemic as it was perceived as an "urban Democratic" problem, we wouldn't have had to shut down over and over again, hundreds of thousands wouldn't have died, and we wouldn't be facing an open assault on the democratic process.

[everything]

It’s so shocking I can’t find any more words

[Peacedog]

What you are missing here guys is that the shutdowns are no longer serving any viable purpose. And they were carried on for far too long in the first place.

Since this disease has no effective vaccine at this time, and very little in the way of effective treatment, the only purpose behind the quarantines was to slow down transmission so that hospitals were not overwhelmed. That took all of about six weeks as of a couple of months ago.

Additionally, since it appears you can in fact catch the disease more than once no long term utility exists to preventing the spread of the disease writ large.

The large numbers of infections reported in the US, versus the rest of the world, is a result of commercial medicine in the US. Here you can go to a local pharmacy and get tested, whereas in most countries you can only get tested if you go to a hospital and they agree to test you. As a result, most countries are vastly under reporting the number of cases they actually have.

It's also why the death rate is less than half, and in some cases less than a quarter, of what is being reported in most of Europe as an example.

Functionally, the disease appears to kill about .3% of those who contract it. My best guess is that it is probably half that as many deaths are being reported as Covid-19 when in fact the person just had Covid-19 and died from something else.

At this point the shutdowns are more and more appearing to be a gross over reaction that did little more than devastate local economies. We'll know for sure in a few years.

[Ian C. Kuzushi]

Well, I actually agree with much of what you say, but perhaps not your interpretation of the facts.

Certainly, you are right that the initial goal of shutdowns in the US was to prevent an overwhelming of medical infrastructure.

Here is where I think you are wrong. Our initial goal was framed that way because it was already too late and we were assuming the worst. Shutdowns mixed with mitigation strategies can be effective given adherence and national cooperation. This enables test and trace. We are so far away from that, and it's exactly because shutdowns were lifted too early, people are claiming that masks are some sort of infringement of their freedoms, and people simply don't want to make small changes in their lives.

A national mask mandate and actual, month-long shutdown with money sent to people who need it (or everyone, whatever) would get us to the position where we could test and trace. We could actually deal with and contain this thing.

Also, you are focusing too much on deaths. This thing can fuck you up for life. So, your (lowball) figures don't really make sense.

[everything]

Sweden's approach didn't work
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020081 ... d-immunity

Universities and schools trying to go full on campus have realized it didn't work.

In contrast, for people who like sports, maybe they can look at what the pro leagues do with success. It should be really clear that a "bubble", frequent testing, strict lockdown rules, contact tracing can work in these cases.

[Steve James]

Ian, my teacher had a saying, "Good beginning, good ending." For computers, it's "Garbage in, garbage out." And then there's the old saw, "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of ... hcq."

[everything]

I guess my question is if we can be half locked down and still reduce R or whatever it’s called.

If so, guess that’s the best we can do now. It’s not realistic that we will do any extreme lockdown in synchrony.

[Trick]

Sweden's approach didn't work
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020081 ... d-immunity

Universities and schools trying to go full on campus have realized it didn't work.

.

Following Swedish mediathe reports seem to change from day to day, back’n forth......We have to wait and see, as it say at the end of your linked article

.Only a year or two after the pandemic, however, can experts fairly judge what was done correctly, the authors said.

[Steve James]

Yes, we'll have to see what "worked," but I'm not clear on what that means in the case of doing nothing. I.e., if we're talking about "locking down" versus "not locking down," what must be compared are results. But, which results?

If we're comparing the economic effects of locking down versus not, then places that didn't lock down or locked down for less time might argue that their strategy worked. However, imo, they should be doing better economically already, and it'd be logical to think that they'd be better off in a year. So, if the Swedish strategy "worked," it must be working now, no need to wait.

Ah, but economics is not the only result to be considered. If a quarter million people died, but the "economy" is doing well, saying a strategy "worked" is a euphemism. Deaths, as a result, are not good items to compare, either. Sure, we could say right now that the death rate in Sweden (no matter who died) is greater than that in the other Scandinavian countries. There's no reason to think that the rates in the other countries will go up in a year and Sweden's won't go up too.

However, hospitalizations caused by the disease far outnumber deaths, and have a far wider effect on the economies across the globe. Many people are quitting, retiring, or just refusing to work because they fear the effects of the disease on themselves or their families. That won't stop until the virus is not considered a threat.

Anyway, show me the success stories of today. That's the result of what "worked" two weeks ago or a month ago. Use whatever metric you want: cases, hospitalizations, deaths. Ya'll can argue that there shouldn't have been lockdowns, or that patients should have taken hcq, or that the virus really isn't that dangerous for years --and probably will. In fact, these are the same arguments given five months ago. The situation today IS the result of the work done earlier. In a year, there'll be another flu season and maybe another virus; 2020 will be hindsight.

[Steve James]

Meanwhile, in Wuhan I guess.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjDLFjmkNuQ

[everything]

Asian countries have success stories.

Collectively from left or right, in the USA we claim we can’t do lockdowns.

NBA “bubble” and other pro sports examples seem to show success.

Maybe that doesn’t apply due to different size, economy, childcare, etc

[Trick]

. Yes, we'll have to see what "worked," but I'm not clear on what that means in the case of doing nothing.

oh they are doing something, they relying on the deeply rooted Swedish “Folkvett”(as read in everything’s linked article), However, the other day I read 25 percent of the population now arenot Swedish born, that could mean Swedish traditions are not that effective anymore..

[Steve James]

Like I said, either it's working or it's not. I have no idea of the number of people Sweden who weren't born there. I don't think that not counting them would mean what was done "worked" for them economically or in terms of the disease.

[Peacedog]

Some potential good news.

A few studies are indicating lasting immunity following initial infection.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/lasting- ... tudies-say