Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:54 am

A crisis within a crisis within a crisis.

Here and elsewhere, we have been wrestling with a series of crises that have become increasingly immediate, acute, and visceral.

These are the Earth System crisis, the Covid-19 crisis, and a newly enlivened awareness of the racial inequity crisis.

These are not all the same, as the novel coronavirus is the only relatively novel one of the three. And yet, it's perhaps useful to view them together, at least occasionally, lest one crisis be forgotten as immediacy snowballs and overwhelms our attention spans.

Here is one useful take on how two of these three crises are related.

“We have seen many diseases emerge over the years, such as Zika, Aids, Sars and Ebola and they all originated from animal populations under conditions of severe environmental pressures,” said Elizabeth Maruma Mrema, head of the UN convention on biological diversity, Maria Neira, the World Health Organization director for environment and health, and Marco Lambertini, head of WWF International.

With coronavirus, “these outbreaks are manifestations of our dangerously unbalanced relationship with nature”, they said. “They all illustrate that our own destructive behaviour towards nature is endangering our own health – a stark reality we’ve been collectively ignoring for decades.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ZCXY3bUE8U
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Steve James on Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:39 pm

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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Steve James on Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:45 pm

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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Steve James on Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:06 pm

About the question of slowing down testing, and that if we did fewer tests we'd have fewer cases. I heard the prez say that we've the 25 million tests, so of course we will have more cases. However, that's not right for a couple of reasons. First, we haven't had 25 million confirmed positive cases; we've have 2.3 million. Of those, 120K have been fatal. So, the fatality rate is 120/2.3 million (i.e., a very small number) or 120/25 million (i.e., a tiny number). More tests will mean that those numbers will go down, not up.

Secondly, testing doesn't affect the virus at all. If you have it, you have it, tested or not. The problem is that if you're not tested, you don't know whether you're spreading it. If we stopped all testing right now, there'd be absolutely no difference in the rate of anything --except testing.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:25 pm

plus with more tests, if the % positive were therefore declining, then it would be a legitimate and good point.

but that's not the case. The % is flat or going up, which is not good. It's bad.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:28 pm

I haven't really seen many stats on mortality or severe cases in young people. I think the studies of NYC co-morbidities (not bothering to look up the link again but it's here on rsf in one of the threads) mostly showed age and certain conditions as the highest risk factors.

Obviously there are severe cases in the young (however we define young). Particularly interested to know of the risks for teens and 20somethings.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Steve James on Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:13 pm

Cases among young people are rising in certain states, but that is expected. It just means that there are more young people being tested. https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-06-22/some-states-report-rising-numbers-of-young-people-catching-coronavirus
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby LaoDan on Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:27 am

Steve James wrote:So, the fatality rate is 120/2.3 million (i.e., a very small number) or 120/25 million (i.e., a tiny number). More tests will mean that those numbers will go down, not up.

I do not understand your math, 122K/2360K=0.052 [or 0.122million/2.36million=0.052] or above 5% of the confirmed cases have been fatal. This % would be reduced if more asymptomatic cases were confirmed (i.e., the denominator would be higher while the number of deaths in the numerator would remain the same), but this does not seem like “a very small number” or “a tiny number” to me. 122,000 deaths in the USA is a fairly large number [they are about ¼ of the total worldwide deaths from COVID-19]. As a percentage of the total US population, however, deaths could seem like a very small percentage.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Steve James on Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:53 am

LaoDan wrote:
Steve James wrote:So, the fatality rate is 120/2.3 million (i.e., a very small number) or 120/25 million (i.e., a tiny number). More tests will mean that those numbers will go down, not up.


I do not understand your math, 122K/2360K=0.052 [or 0.122million/2.36million=0.052] or above 5% of the confirmed cases have been fatal. This % would be reduced if more asymptomatic cases were confirmed (i.e., the denominator would be higher while the number of deaths in the numerator would remain the same), but this does not seem like “a very small number” or “a tiny number” to me. 122,000 deaths in the USA is a fairly large number [they are about ¼ of the total worldwide deaths from COVID-19]. As a percentage of the total US population, however, deaths could seem like a very small percentage.


You're absolutely right about the math. I wasn't actually trying to calculate to make a point about the fatality rate. It was about the ratio deaths among confirmed cases to the number of tests. So, I used 120/2.3 million --but I didn't calculate it as 120K. I just compared whatever the result would be to 120/25 million.

Clearly, 120K deaths is an enormous number. 20K was an enormous number. Yes, the percentage compared to the total population is small. We've been saying that since the thread began. The whole point has been how many people will die if 300 million people contract it. It has been argued that the virus is not lethal, and will be like the flu (1%). Even 1% of 300 million is a lot of dead.

Everything might have caught on that the numbers made the prez's suggestion to slow testing is ironic. Since the percentage of deaths should go down with more testing. Unfortunately, that is not the case.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Giles on Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:37 pm

A BBC film/interview, maybe interesting at this point in time:

The virus hunter who got Covid-19

He’s one of the world’s leading infectious disease experts. The man who was part of the team that discovered the deadly Ebola virus in 1976
[the film includes footage of him in Africa; remember that Judy Mikovits video where she claimed that Ebola couldn't infect human cells until 1999?] and who also pioneered research into HIV/Aids.

Until now he had managed to avoid being infected by any of the deadly diseases he’s spent his life fighting. But in the end Professor Peter Piot of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine was struck down by Covid-19.

Here he tells our Global Health Correspondent, Tulip Mazumdar, about his experience of the virus and his concern for the longer term health impacts that doctors and scientists are beginning to see as patients recover.



https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-53143184/the-virus-hunter-who-got-covid
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:23 pm

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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:22 pm

Cases drop by 90% after Austria mandates masks in public, and shelter in place clearly shown to do the same in the California Bay Area.

The number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Austria dropped from 90 to 10 cases per one million people, two weeks after the government required everyone to wear a face mask on April 6.

According to Daily Mail, "Austria seemingly managed to reverse its crisis by making masks compulsory on April 6, following a spike in infections in late March."


https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=ht ... HrkM&hl=en

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/2 ... NQRi9QszaY
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:58 pm

I guess we bet that scientists will save the day including helping those anti science Flat Earth total morons.

I still have a hard time understanding stupidity.

What’s stranger is some kind of “organized” social stupidity.

I guess herd mentality makes people (unwittingly stupid) feel like they are being “normal” and reasonable and masks their. Own stupidity from themselves.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Giles on Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:43 am

Regarding 'stupidity'...

I think that overall we need to look a little deeper in terms of behavior and psychology. Everyone is affected, unsettled, compromised and frightened by the coronavirus to some extent. Rich, reasonably well-off or poor; young, old; more left or right leaning in political terms, etc. And above all unsettled, because this virus pandemic is not only threatening in itself, it also continues to present important uncertainties and unknowns alongside the things that now have been reasonably established. And of course the nature of this virus in particular is that often you can’t see if people are infected – and infectious – or not. Not even infected people themselves can sometimes know or even suspect this. And yet they can then still infect others who may become seriously ill or even die. And the whole thing is basically “nature” acting on us: natural mutation enabling a (for us) new virus to make the jump from animal to human. On one level as “random” as an earthquake, or a volcano, or even a huge storm (leaving out climate change for a moment). And that’s an incredibly unsettling situation for all of us. Suddenly we are all very small and weak and helpless again in the face of the natural world, the big big universe. Plus we have the other emotional, economic and financial suffering being caused by measures and/or the disease itself. Plus there were already many other unsettling factors in our world, even before the pandemic.

So: it’s not surprising that a significant number of people, when faced by all this frightening uncertainty, instinctively want to believe that the overall situation is not complex or uncertain or ‘random’ after all. In a way, this can console people, because it restores a sense of certainty, or orientation. Among the simplest approaches are options such as: the virus isn’t really dangerous. Period. Or: the virus doesn’t exist at all, it’s a hoax. Period. Or: it’s not naturally occurring, it has been engineered to do this and has now been released on purpose, or maybe by accident. Period. (This brings strong emotional simplification of the problem, because NOW THERE IS SOMEONE SPECIFIC WE CAN BLAME, AT WHOM WE CAN DIRECT OUR FEAR AND ANGER!). Plus milder variations on these themes, some of which are certainly possible if not however likely or at all proven: it’s a natural virus but the outbreak has been caused by an accidental release from a lab (so there’s still someone specific we can blame).

Hence such ‘explanations’ can be attractive, either in themselves – they can be directly accessed on the Internet – or by way of some politicians, even leaders in office, who more or less espouse these viewpoints. Or at least hint at them. It’s a form of consolation, of restored certainty and thus of perceived ‘security’.

So in times of fear and uncertainty, emotional needs can sometimes take precedence over logical thinking and reasoning, even among many people who are not ‘stupid’. The alternative explanation, the alternative facts, may be ‘stupid’ - meaning they fall apart if subjected to logical scrutiny - but the people who subscribe to them are not necessarily that. It’s one human response to the overall situation.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:38 am

Giles wrote:Regarding 'stupidity'...

I think that overall we need to look a little deeper in terms of behavior and psychology. Everyone is affected, unsettled, compromised and frightened by the coronavirus to some extent. Rich, reasonably well-off or poor; young, old; more left or right leaning in political terms, etc. And above all unsettled, because this virus pandemic is not only threatening in itself, it also continues to present important uncertainties and unknowns alongside the things that now have been reasonably established. And of course the nature of this virus in particular is that often you can’t see if people are infected – and infectious – or not. Not even infected people themselves can sometimes know or even suspect this. And yet they can then still infect others who may become seriously ill or even die. And the whole thing is basically “nature” acting on us: natural mutation enabling a (for us) new virus to make the jump from animal to human. On one level as “random” as an earthquake, or a volcano, or even a huge storm (leaving out climate change for a moment). And that’s an incredibly unsettling situation for all of us. Suddenly we are all very small and weak and helpless again in the face of the natural world, the big big universe. Plus we have the other emotional, economic and financial suffering being caused by measures and/or the disease itself. Plus there were already many other unsettling factors in our world, even before the pandemic.

So: it’s not surprising that a significant number of people, when faced by all this frightening uncertainty, instinctively want to believe that the overall situation is not complex or uncertain or ‘random’ after all. In a way, this can console people, because it restores a sense of certainty, or orientation. Among the simplest approaches are options such as: the virus isn’t really dangerous. Period. Or: the virus doesn’t exist at all, it’s a hoax. Period. Or: it’s not naturally occurring, it has been engineered to do this and has now been released on purpose, or maybe by accident. Period. (This brings strong emotional simplification of the problem, because NOW THERE IS SOMEONE SPECIFIC WE CAN BLAME, AT WHOM WE CAN DIRECT OUR FEAR AND ANGER!). Plus milder variations on these themes, some of which are certainly possible if not however likely or at all proven: it’s a natural virus but the outbreak has been caused by an accidental release from a lab (so there’s still someone specific we can blame).

Hence such ‘explanations’ can be attractive, either in themselves – they can be directly accessed on the Internet – or by way of some politicians, even leaders in office, who more or less espouse these viewpoints. Or at least hint at them. It’s a form of consolation, of restored certainty and thus of perceived ‘security’.

So in times of fear and uncertainty, emotional needs can sometimes take precedence over logical thinking and reasoning, even among many people who are not ‘stupid’. The alternative explanation, the alternative facts, may be ‘stupid’ - meaning they fall apart if subjected to logical scrutiny - but the people who subscribe to them are not necessarily that. It’s one human response to the overall situation.


I don't think calling it stupidity is sufficient or even necessarily accurate. But, the above analysis falls apart when you look at how the same people respond to either more immediate or far less immediate effect. Take my comments about the crisis within a crisis above. Climate change is not a necessarily noticeable immediate threat, but these Covid deniers (at whatever level they are willing to admit to that) respond to it in the same fashion. Police violence can be a far more immediately noticeable threat, but Covid deniers respond to it in the same way.

Civility for the sake of civility is just counterproductive.
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