Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

[grzegorz]

The problem is that he listened to his hunch that the virus would not be bad, or as windy is saying now, that it won't be as bad as the seasonal flu. I.e., according to Trump's opinion at the beginning of March, there'll only be 22K deaths. Before this, no one was blaming him for that number or how "he" handled it. That's because "he" had no hand in it. It was all CDC run. Besides, why put his brand on it anyway?

Then, he was warned about the covid19 virus. He stopped travel from China, but what did he do in the US? He kept saying it wouldn't be serious here. His supporters at FOX news (except one) repeated what he said. He then put Pence in charge of a task force over the CDC chief. All reports from the CDC came through the WH. Watch his news briefing. FEMA is there; the surgeon general is there; the CDC isn't. Dr. Fauci constantly has to correct what the president says. If this were The Apprentice, he'd be fired.

His whole administration is repeating that talking point about this having to be handled on the state level to take the responsibility off the Pres almost to embarrassment.

As you said he and they have to double down since the Pres basically painted himself into a corner as ten of thousands of Americans die but then we'll hear they we senior citizens...blah blah blah...we can't blame the Pres.

[windwalker]

Ah, there's a fine question, or implication. Not expressed outright, but the undertone resonates. Yes, what's really going on? Is all not as it seems? Is there a ..... hidden agenda ?!? Are mayhap strange forces at work...? Stay tuned for more startling revelations.

It is interesting in talking to a recent arrival from Guatemala a friend of mine.
He felt the virus was man-made manufactured.

Some have speculated about this but is very easily debunked too many people looking at the genome.
I’m more interested in what exactly are the people being hospitalized for, age groups and other factors that may have contributed to their sickness or mortality.

Raw numbers don’t reveal this to that detail yet in the US.
For example in Italy there seems to be a lot of mitigating factors that are being connected to the death rates from the virus.

[Steve James]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvAz9GReFhw

So, what happens if Ron Paul has infected much of the Congress?
The thing about the press conferences is spot on.
These things were predicted already in this thread.

Giles is right that the tables are irrelevant to the problem. I post them because there are people still saying and acting as if it's not serious.

The solution is to agree to stay away from other people as much as possible to slow the transmission of the virus, and not to present what one wonders about and doesn't understand as an argument not to. Don't be stupid like Ron Paul. SImple.

[windwalker]

The solution is to agree to stay away from other people as much as possible to slow the transmission of the virus, and not to present what one wonders about and doesn't understand as an argument not to. Don't be stupid like Ron Paul. SImple.

So what is it.

Treat it like they do in Taiwan and Korea and still keep their economies working.
Or stay home, let the economy crash.

Got it Comrade

Only a few really know what’s going on,

[Steve James]

on't be stupid like Ron Paul. SImple.

You know that now everyone who's come in contact with him should be tested. And, you have to admit that it is stupid to get a test for a communicable disease and then expose others. It's like going for an AIDS test and then screwing your wife and girlfriends before you get the result. Or, imagine if he'd been tested for ebola? Again, that's the problem. He didn't take it seriously, and he was stupid.

[everything]

Hey guys, can we go to the economics tangent for a little? I'm no economist, but what are the effects of people in quarantine:

- local businesses that need in-person business: gyms, salons, restaurants, bars, retailers, entertainment places, dry cleaners, local branches of banks, etc., anything that is not grocery or pharmacy: doing terrible.
- suppliers to those local businesses: doing terrible.
- local transportation: doing terrible.
- taxes on all of those: doing terrible.
- schools: some can go online at same "revenue". tutoring, after school things: doing terrible.
- e-commerce and delivery: growing more than before.
- manufacturing: it depends... for "essentials", demand is still high. for anything "discretionary" or "disposable income" at local places (like eating out or movies) ... massive slowdown.
- sanitizers, toilet paper, canned soup: dramatically picking up.
- healthcare? massive demand, overwhelmed system isn't exactly "good business".
- and so on

If you are an economist, I think you can look at some of the above (and more) and have some idea of the drop in GDP for those things and suppliers for those things. I'm not sure of all the stats that get released all the time on these...


Are you doing a lot of reading of this news, these releases, the financial markets, etc.?

[everything]

Here are some stats for USA
https://apps.bea.gov/histdata/histChildLevels.cfm?HMI=8

For Q3, 2019, in the USA, retail, manufacturing, and "accommodation and food services" were huge contributors to GDP growth.

Unfortunately, it seems clear those trends will dramatically reverse now.

[bailewen]

2nd to the last port on page 11 for my amateur economic analysis.

One thing I didn't mention though, is that China has been vastly better positioned to deal with this economically. The entire national plan has been ramping up to and promoting O2O business, and distance learning, online healthcare etc for at least a year now.

The Chinese economy is way more online than the American one, and the CCP has been pushing this whole online eduction as a way to reduce rural to urban migration.

[everything]

I don’t know.

Since we made China the world’s factory, the US economy became services.

There are lower paid services and higher paid services.

For the higher paid ones, people can mostly work from home.

For the lower paid services, not sure.

For manufacturing if factories are mostly automated, it seems relatively safe.

So in-person activities with close human contact suffer for now.

A lot of these could be called “entertainment”.

We can almost start by subtracting all in person entertainment including sports and non grocery or pharmacy retail from GDP. Sports has massive “information sector” like TV and advertising as well.

That leads to massive unemployment.

That leads to less consumer spend in all sectors.

Not sure how they calculate or analyze after that.

[everything]

I’m not sure we can say China is way more online.

You mean like all is Weibo?

Looking at my case, I now telework.

So I don’t spend much on gas.

I spend little on food at work or at a lunch restaurant.

That’s maybe $50 savings per week.

Which isn’t all going to groceries and toilet paper.

Multiply that difference by all the WFH people, the savings isn’t in GDP now. Since that consumer spend is revenue for someone, normally.

[windwalker]

Which is why the numbers are important to understand the risk factors and how to mitigate them.
The biggest problem in the US was a lack of testing at the beginning due to the regulatory process the test kits had to go through and the fact that you’re dealing with 50 different states.
It would seem that this is now being streamlined there is a test that if true can verify in about 45 minutes.
I would expect most if not all people will at some point in time be tested.

The US is also very far behind other countries like Taiwan ,China ,and Korea in the use of technology and information services. Despite much of it being developed here.

It’s very notable when one travels overseas and returns back to the US.
The corundum Being that those same services that other countries use are also the same services by which they monitor their citizens.

Courtesy of many of companies in the US.

[Steve James]

Short term economic effects? Unemployment in service economies. Growth in areas that use the internet. Nobody knows the ways that this will change life. Will Italians stop kissing? Anyway, afa the "economy," it seems clear that we will go back to a point where it refers to corporations, aopt to people. Companies don't exist without the workers.

I do agree that the "economy" will rebound, but not because banks will be able to raise interest rates. Though, interest rates will be lower than ever ...maybe. But, most people will start to agree that sharing is better than hoarding. And, it might be easier to convince people now to prepare for an even bigger disaster. I.e., there should be a glut in the manufacturing of excess medical equipment, drugs, and patient capability than existed before. Hospitals don't have enough facilities because extra facilities are expensive to maintain.

Still, if the result of the virus is to affect the global economy, then it still seems reasonable not to contribute to spreading.

I haven't moved any of my stocks or made any withdrawals. Meh, it'd be interesting to lose everything --but I've been too conservative for that to be likely. Will the Congress ask to dip into the social security reserve, I don't know. Hey, I thought everybody was preparing for the zombie apocalypse anyway.

Now, an interesting question is what would happen if the power grid or internet went down.

[Steve James]

Re: origin of covid-19. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... -RY5A2YEhI

[everything]

For most of us, the economic changes are a gigantic concern since ultimately how things are doing affects employment prospects. Yes if my main job was restaurant work, I'd be much more immediately concerned. If my main job was e-commerce delivery, other than the health concerns, I'd be less worried about unemployment for now. As an office worker, my fear is much more abstract and hard to analyze, but it's real.

Also, it's rather concerning for financial/retirement planning. Do we sell, do we buy, etc., etc. I'd say I'm rather conservative as well, but I wasn't really rebalancing as much as I should have/wanted to when things maybe hit "irrational exuberance" a few months ago.

[Steve James]

Sure, it was a great time to sell when the market was 30% higher. Personally, I'm in for the ride. I would not sell right now, even though the market may tank much more. If you're young, and thinking about retiring many years from now, I wouldn't worry. Time is worth more than money. Unless you've put all your eggs in one basket or the markets hit 0, you'll be in on the beginning. There'll be a lot of necessary growth. You've listed areas yourself.

If you're young, it'll be easier to move where the work is. After the great depression, the government created jobs doing things like repairing roads and infrastructure. Social security emerged from those times, too. Recently, they've been criticized as being the creation of the "nanny state" which is not the same as the "deep state."