China strikes me as being the loser in the end on this one. What Trump is doing, if he holds to it, will accelerate what I describe next. I can't think of anything the PRC can do to stop it however.
Its demographic death spiral is going to accelerate over the next decade or so. The one child policy has been a complete disaster. The PRC got old before it got rich and now it will never catch up.
Western nations are getting caught up on all of the technology theft being perpetrated by the PRC and will severely dampen down on this.
Fifth generation tech is largely beyond the ability of a socialist society to operate and the necessary top down control systems in place in China cannot operate this kind of technology at all. The Politburo is betting the farm on AI making it possible, but they are going to lose that bet.
Manufacturing is already moving out of China and into places that better protect technology and property rights. The coming almost complete automation of manufacturing will be the end of the Chinese labor advantage and essentially eliminate their access to hard capital. And the manufacturing won't be coming back.
And none of this deals with the internal debt timebomb at the province level. Short hand the second the outside currency starts to dry up, they're screwed.
My guess is that at some point the wealthier coastal areas will make a break for it and the boys from Beijing won't be able to pay for enough of a goon squad to keep it together. It will be more of a mush than a civil war as no one will have, or be interested in spending, the money necessary to win. Sichuan, or Shanghai, will be the first to make a break for it if I had to pick. The Politburo will probably get slaughtered by their own populations at the end of the day. The mobile family planning teams and the internal security police will be the first to get the knife. I'm not sure who will end up running the Beijing sector, but my thought is that it won't be the current crowd or any of their lineage.
The developed world will chose sides to support, but it will be a soft support as nothing in China is really worth that much from a Western perspective at that point. It will make getting herbs for TCM practitioners a real bitch though.
With labor being irrelevant for heavy industry due to increasing automation, an inability to protect intellectual property and the developed world entering a post scarcity environment most of the developing world will slip into complete irrelevancy. Those that can eventually bridge the gap will be in good shape. Those that cannot will dwell in a kind of developmental twillight based upon what technologies they can master and those that they cannot.