Report from Shanghai

[Trick]

For a depressing, but relevant, point of reference the Spanish Flu of 1918 killed roughly 3-6% of those infected, however it ultimately infected roughly 1/3rd of the world's population at the time. And that was considered a pandemic.

I think one of the worrying factors of the coronavirus is the potential ease of transmission. Ultimately how many people are infected will drive the end view of what is happening. SARS, for whatever reason, did not appear to infect that many people or simply was more difficult to transmit limiting it's impact.

The general lack of transparency inherent to the Chinese government combined with what appears to the outside world as draconian measures for containment purposes is driving a lot of the current level of concern outside of the Middle Kingdom.

But the Spanish flu was around a little over a hundred years ago, can we compare hygiene and sanitary and medicine situations back then with todays,

[Peacedog]

Sure.

Hygiene in Asia, outside first world enclaves like Japan and Singapore, is generally pretty poor. Keep in mind large percentages of the population in the region still clean their anus with their hands after defecating. Water quality post distribution is poor over all. Sewage treatment, outside piping it raw into waterways, is non-existent in most places. And medical intervention that improves survivability is highly contingent on the sick population both having access and the ability to pay for it.

China's GDP is about $11,000 USD per capita on paper. And anyone who has spent time outside the rich coastal zones know this goes downhill rapidly. It is not a rich country. It is a big country with a few rich people in it.

Air pollution, which also greatly enhances susceptibility, is legendarily bad throughout most of Asia as well. Airvisual.com provides real time tracking of this for anyone interested. As an example, the Air Quality Index (AQI) for my home town was a 17 when I left for the US. The AQI in Chiang Mai, Thailand, when I left was a 165. The air quality was 9 times worse. And that was for the extremely dangerous PM2.5 particles alone. The worst in the world at the time of this writing is the Bitopi area near Dhaka, Bangladesh. Its AQI is a 330. Dhaka overall is a 253.

Also, modern pathogens are much stronger than historical ones as a practical matter. Modern human beings have immune systems that are far more powerful than our ancestors had. Mainly because the people with weak immune systems all died as a result of a series of pandemics that started at least as early 220AD and finished in the American Samos in the 1970s.

These pandemics are the source of classical Chinese medicine works like the Shang Han Lun and the Wen Bing. Because of these works we know about these events.

Many of the civilizations subject to these diseases simply ceased to exist. The huge population die offs in North America, and South America, following the arrival of the Spaniards were due to these diseases being introduced to populations that simply had little, to no, immunity. Those populations had already died off in Asia, and the West, hundreds of years previously. A lot of people tend to come up with goofy conspiracy theories involving that time period, but since the people introducing the diseases had no concept of transmission vectors it's all bullshit.

This is also why governments shit kittens anytime a new SARS, Coronavirus or Ebola pathogen comes up. Everyone is terrified that the new malaria/polio/whatever is now on the scene. It has simply been a matter of luck that we've avoided one so far. As a practical matter, we have good interventions for bacterial disease, some interventions for viral and we don't have jack shit for prion.

[windwalker]

The AQI in Chiang Mai, Thailand, when I left was a 165. The air quality was 9 times worse. And that was for the extremely dangerous PM2.5 particles alone.

It is interesting.
Lived worked in the land of Thai awhile back.
Out in the country the “ khlongs “ waterways were very polluted,
houses built on stilts . At least out in “Isan “ Thai, Lao borderlands.

The people very close to the earth very friendly, lots of smiles and good food.
Also very poor, with a different take on the environment.




No windows, they used shutters.
upper floor used for sleeping, family gatherings
cooking done under the house.
The village I visited a close friend's moms house.
First time I tried "rat" field rats they caught....lots of laughing watching me eat it
with them not telling what it was until after the meal...not to bad
Drinking and washing water was collected from the rain draining into large cisterns.

In some remote villages, houses don't have running water. There are some big jars to keep water that fall from the roof. There is a pipe that goes from the roof to the jar. During the monsoon the jars are filled gradually. With two big jars it is enough for washing during a whole year.

https://www.thaiworldview.com/lao/isan5.htm

[Peacedog]

Windy,

What you are describing is exactly what I was living in. People were great. The air just got to me unfortunately, so I had to come home early.

[windwalker]

Deaths from the novel coronavirus have now surpassed that of SARS in the early 2000s, with more than 800 dead so far, according to multiple reports.

Hubei province in China reported 81 deaths Saturday, which pushed the death toll for the virus to 811 -- past that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which broke out on the mainland in 2002 and 2003.

The SARS outbreak killed at least 774, with 8,096 infections globally, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The coronavirus, by comparison, has already infected at least 37,198 and has taken the lives of at least 811 people on China's mainland, as of Saturday night.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus- ... eds-killed

Not looking good.
Hope whats reported is being over reported.....

[meeks]

google 'benjamin wilson wuhan' - he's an English teacher in China since the early 2000s, been on the western news:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/americans-epidemic-epicenter-say-they-feel-abandoned-u-s-n1126406

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10838512/us-dad-refuses-to-leave-his-wife-in-coronavirus-ground-zero-wuhan-as-chinese-partners-are-banned-from-rescue-flight/

[windwalker]

google 'benjamin wilson wuhan' - he's an English teacher in China since the early 2000s, been on the western news:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/americans-epidemic-epicenter-say-they-feel-abandoned-u-s-n1126406

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10838512/us-dad-refuses-to-leave-his-wife-in-coronavirus-ground-zero-wuhan-as-chinese-partners-are-banned-from-rescue-flight/

The Department of State announced Thursday that additional evacuation planes “with capacity for private U.S. citizens” will be sent to Wuhan early next week. The number of people requesting evacuation from Wuhan has grown recently.

kind of a hard call....embassy staff can be ordered to leave and are the direct responsibility of the US...they have no choice.
Private US citizens can not be ordered to leave only advised,
while they are US citizens they fall under the country they live in.

In more severe situations, we may recommend that U.S. citizens leave the immediate area if it is safe to do so or even the foreign country. If commercial transportation is unavailable, and if we have consular officers at the embassy or consulate, and if the conditions permit, we will do our best to identify what transportation options may be available to help U.S. citizens travel out of the crisis location.

In extreme situations, if there are no commercial transportation options (planes, trains, boats/ferries, etc.) available, and if we have consular officers at the embassy or consulate, and if the conditions permit, we may help U.S. citizens seeking to depart by working with the host government, other countries, and other U.S. government agencies to identify – and in some cases arrange – available transportation.

Regardless of the method of transportation, or who provides it, U.S. citizens (and others who are eligible for U.S. government assistance) are generally responsible for reimbursing the government for the cost of their travel.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel ... risis.html

seems kind of strange for a long term expat not to understand this.

Did work as part of a NEO staff in korea

Noncombatant Evacuation Operations (NEO) is an emergency action used specifically OCONUS. ... The Department of State (DOS) recommends an evacuation, and the Department of the Army—as the Department of Defense (DOD) Executive Agent for repatriation (RE-PAT) planning and operations—coordinates the execution of NEO.

US citizens seem to be very naive about their status living overseas

[windwalker]

During NEOs, the US Ambassador is the senior authority for the evacuation and is ultimately responsible for the successful completion of the NEO and the safety of the evacuees. The Ambassador speaks with the authority of the President and serves as direct representative on site."
This means that at times American citizens may become endangered in locations outside of the United States. This is usually due to civil unrest or war. However, it may also be due to a natural disaster. Is a virus considered a natural disaster ?.

The U.S. Ambassador has the responsibility, according to law, to request a NEO. Once he does, the government will determine whether or not the evacuation should be done with civilian resources, such as the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF), or with military forces. Even if military forces conduct the evacuation, the Ambassador remains in charge of the evacuation.

https://rumsoakedfist.org/viewtopic.php ... a&start=15

Terry Branstad
Incumbent. Terry Branstad
The United States Ambassador to China is the chief American diplomat to People's Republic of China (PRC).

So far

The U.S. State Department has placed U.S. diplomatic staff and their families in China on "authorized departure," meaning they are permitted to leave the country amid the coronavirus outbreak. Permitted to leave not ordered to leave...

Driving the news: Approximately 210 U.S. citizens were evacuated Wednesday from Wuhan, where the outbreak began and has spread most widely. The virus has killed at least 171 people in China and infected over 8,000, and was declared a Global Health Emergency on Thursday by the World Health Organization.

A State Department spokesperson told Axios the "authorized departure" notice applied to "all non-emergency U.S. government employees at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing and the consulates general in Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenyang."

https://www.axios.com/state-department- ... 5ec7d.html


A hard call, not to cause more panic while still addressing the need to
contain the virus and yet provide services to those still in country.

[windwalker]

A US dad refused to abandon his wife and child in Coronavirus hot spot Wuhan - as Chinese spouses are banned from US rescue flight.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10838512/ ... ue-flight/

Our focus must be on helping U.S. citizens. The embassy or consulate of your friend or family member’s nationality is responsible for helping their citizens. In general, we do not provide evacuation assistance to non-U.S. citizens. Exceptions may be made to accommodate special family circumstances, such as when a spouse or other relative of a U.S. citizen is traveling with the U.S. citizen family member.

If your friend or family member is not a U.S. citizen, you can contact the embassy or consulate of their nationality. You may also contact aid organizations, such as the Red Cross, to ask about any assistance they might be able to provide.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel ... risis.html

His wife must not be a US citizen or have a visa....
not because she is Chineses

Happened to me a long time ago. very tough

Hopefully it works out...

American visas for Chinese citizens traveling to the US
as some here may know are not so easy to get.

The CDC warned Americans to avoid traveling anywhere in China as the
US Department of State upped its travel advisory there to a Level 3 on Monday.

Would expect an antivirus therapy to be developed within this year....

[grzegorz]

Thanks for sharing.

I met some people in Shanghai from here and I was wondering what they were going through.

Like you, I am also do not social media websites that sell my information (or Google) and yet I still get the same information without it.

For example worldstar has been showing a lot of leaked videos from China which seem to show, if authentic of course, that the situation is much worse than it seems (although seems seem to be fake or at least questionable).

Here is a recent one which seems to match up with the conditions Jarek wrote about. In it a couple is stopped on the street and hauled off in a metal box supposedly after being evaluated. A women can be heard screaming. (I have seen similar situations in China after a protest.) Of course it could be anything and with so much misinformation and disinformation I don't wish to add to the junk or social media hysteria as much as understand what is really happening world wide.

https://m.worldstarhiphop.com/android/v ... IUm2a2NxnW

[grzegorz]

Here is an update from 3 days ago. In it they discuss topics we covered here from expats staying, leaving or stuck in Wuhan to the seasonal flu being more deadly.

https://youtu.be/h3Z2PKBcCrw

They are quarantining people here in neaby Travis Air Force base and it seems highly contagious with 8 people arriving from China with the virus.

I wish Jarek and his family well. I would have done the same.

[Trick]

Windy,

What you are describing is exactly what I was living in. People were great. The air just got to me unfortunately, so I had to come home early.

The AQI in Chiang Mai, Thailand, when I left was a 165. The air quality was 9 times worse. And that was for the extremely dangerous PM2.5 particles alone.

I’ve only been to Thailand once, it was back in 1988. I remember in Bankok, if went out for an whole day wearing white shirt later at night it had an grayish tone to it....But as for Chiang Mai back then I did not experience that, ok it was raining all the time up there when I was there.

[Trick]

Private US citizens can not be ordered to leave only advised,

About a week ago Swedes where ‘evacuated’ from Wuhan, but some Swedish citizens choose to stay. I can only speculate out from my own perspective why they stayed - they may actually feel it’s not as worrisome as it sound in media or/and they might have an tight family connection with Chinese citizens, not worried of their own person but for them, don’t want to leave them “behind”

[Trick]

For two days I have not went outside the compound I live in, but been out to play my TJQ.
However today we went out to buy groceries, I was a little surprised that the two convenience stores just outside still open. We went to the two nearby supermarkets for shopping, groceries available as usual. But I’m out of coffee, and I buy that from the Starbucks which is closed, I have to go with Nescafé

[Trick]

Here is an update from 3 days ago. In it they discuss topics we covered here from expats staying, leaving or stuck in Wuhan to the seasonal flu being more deadly.

For example worldstar has been showing a lot of leaked videos from China which seem to show, if authentic of course, that the situation is much worse than it seems (although seems seem to be fake or at least questionable).

Here is a recent one which seems to match up with the conditions Jarek wrote about. In it a couple is stopped on the street and hauled off in a metal box supposedly after being evaluated. A women can be heard screaming. (I have seen similar situations in China after a protest.) Of course it could be anything

Actually the “seasonal” flu or cold where peaking here just prior and in the initial part of when this corona virus came on...this probably led to a lot of initial confusion among medical staff. Many both medical staff and infected probably thought it was “just the usual thing” coming on...And might still add to initial confusions in people feeling and showing “symptoms”.

About people in panic screaming and authorities brutally handle them, not in my neighborhood, here’s a quite relaxed atmosphere among peoples. Today the nice sunny spring weather was back, and with it some went out to play badminton(people really like this in my neighborhood).
Theres no hazmats or strict authoritative uniforms at the compound gate, those extras who stand there looks as the usual guys who often stand there to hand out flyers about house sale or education for kids. But these guys check so you have the temporary exit/entry paper that’s to for now is set for 14 days ahead....They’re not there to scare.