Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

[everything]

Giles, I think you do a good job trying to explain what I call stupidity.

But I still just don't fundamentally get it. You may as well be saying "dogs don't have the capacity to intellectually reason, and that's why they don't really draw reasonably thought out conclusions", and that would explain it.

[everything]

look at the "weapons of mass destruction" decision making leading to war. so many presumably smart people were involved. there was supposed "intelligence" gathered. here is one rare instance where I agree with Trump's claims that this whole thing was stupid. How can we explain this big failure? I don't really know.

Sure, Saddam Hussein was a monster in many respects,

Saddam Hussein is a homicidal dictator who is addicted to weapons of mass destruction.

George W. Bush

at one point back when Bush senior was the head of the CIA Mr.Hussein was an good asset because he was going to help the US go homicidal on Iran, his military got equiped and trained by the smart monsters of the united states....no wonder they feared him

hmm, so this stupidity was all really carefully calculated ... yet not really THAT carefully

[everything]

https://www.fox9.com/news/clemson-sees- ... r-covid-19

Clemson sees 23 football players test positive for COVID-19 after returning to campus for practices

[Steve James]

Aw, NYS is going to ask/make people coming from states where rates of infection are increasing quarantine for two weeks. The EU is considering banning travelers from the US (Brazil, and Latin America) this summer.

Ok, my guess is that something similar to what happened in March when the US banned travel from Europe. The projected tourist markets in both regions will suffer immediately. Tourism and sports have to make up a large portion of summer revenue. European football has started a slow return --without fans. Baseball here might start, but the stores in the stadiums need customers --to buy $10 franks and $15 beers. So, some people will probably pull their funds from those categories.

All this depends on the progress of the virus, as always. Yeah, lots more younger people are testing positive, and they're 95% likely to survive. Reports from Houston, which claims the biggest ICU in the world, are saying that its ICU is 97% full. That's now, which is a reflection of two weeks past. So, we won't know whether they're at the peak or a plateau --and a plateau just means that it'll be about the same tomorrow and for the next two weeks. Now, if Texas has to go back into another lockdown, there can only be more damage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3SOYfWjC2-4

[everything]

Something reported poorly in the news stories I've seen is "deaths per 100k residents". This is a misleading stat with no explanation in the charts and graphs. Not sure the journalists are aware.

Someone could easily conclude "oh my death chance is super low, so I'll go do whatever I want". But that is not a good conclusion, and will change these stats. A mass group of people who doesn't understand what they're reading (if they even read) will easily affect these stats (which are "lagging indicators") since there will then be more cases and more deaths, which changes the death/100k stat (so DO NOT use this stat as some kind of risk indicator - that should likely be added to these reports).

[roger hao]

When calling out 'stupidity' be careful of venturing into ...........

Bigotry -
intolerance toward those who hold different opinions from oneself

[LaoDan]

Something reported poorly in the news stories I've seen is "deaths per 100k residents". This is a misleading stat with no explanation in the charts and graphs. Not sure the journalists are aware.

Someone could easily conclude "oh my death chance is super low, so I'll go do whatever I want". But that is not a good conclusion, and will change these stats. A mass group of people who doesn't understand what they're reading (if they even read) will easily affect these stats (which are "lagging indicators") since there will then be more cases and more deaths, which changes the death/100k stat (so DO NOT use this stat as some kind of risk indicator - that should likely be added to these reports).

Deaths/thousand is used to normalize data so that comparisons can be made for different groups/locations with different population densities. The number of deaths for a large population would be expected to be higher than for small populations (more people = more exposures = more deaths). So, one CAN get some information about how safe they are RELATIVE to other groups/locations. But you are correct that other factors are in play and one cannot think that the number alone seems very small and conclude that there is little risk.

For example, there may be more total fatalities for whites in the USA than for blacks, but when normalized for the % of whites and blacks in the society, then blacks would have a higher number of deaths per 100K. Another example is that the USA has ~122K deaths, the most in the world, but this is only about seventh in the world for deaths/100K population. One can also use normalized data to determine deaths for certain age groups, or almost any other subgroup that has specific breakdowns in the collected data.

[Steve James]

Yikes. Yesterday was the hottest day of the year in the UK, and people flocked to some beaches.

https://www.abc.net.au/cm/rimage/123947 ... ge.jpg?v=3

[Steve James]

So, the prez tells FOX interviewer that we're doing great and that he's saved millions of people. And, if we do hit a million, he'll have saved tens of millions.

[everything]

smh at some level he must realize he's doing terribly. maybe when Fox actually says so.

[Giles]

Giles, I think you do a good job trying to explain what I call stupidity.

But I still just don't fundamentally get it. You may as well be saying "dogs don't have the capacity to intellectually reason, and that's why they don't really draw reasonably thought out conclusions", and that would explain it.

Thanks for the ongoing engagement. Maybe this might better clarify what I'm trying to say...

My attitude to ‘stupidity’ in the corona crisis is also influenced by personal experience, especially in the last few weeks. I have an acquaintance/friend who I see from time to time. I’ll call him Tim. He is a really nice, thoughtful, kind and sensitive guy, a craftsman, no longer young but for his age still spry and youthful. Lives alone, not much money but gets by, strong on ethical living, working and behaviour. Good chess player, too, beats me hands down. I know he also had a very tough childhood under a strict but unstable father, which has left its mark on his soul, so to speak. Not making him violent or cruel or anything, just quite thin-skinned and sometimes melancholy.

A week or so I met Tim again and we had a chat over a cup of tea. He told me that the last few months had been hard for him emotionally, that the social restrictions had really got to him. And that he had broken with his best friend – a good man, a philosopher – due to the corona crisis. Tim had been shaken by his friend’s gullibility, that his friend believed so much disinformation about corona. “Oh man, that’s tough,” I said, commiserating. Yes, Tim said, and told me that his friend had turned out to be so credulous and narrow-minded. That friend, he continued, really believed just about everything the government said, about things like social distancing and masks being necessary; his friend didn’t see that the government was using the corona crisis to try and curtail democracy and control us more; he didn’t see that masks were being used to dehumanize us. His friend refused to recognise that Bill Gates was behind a plan to gain more power and put a chip into everyone to control them in the future. Etc. And so Tim and his friend had had a big disagreement and now they weren’t talking, which made Tim really sad on more than one level.

Oh shit. I offered him some more tea and steered the conversation round to other themes as soon as I could. I tried to empathize with how he was feeling without engaging directly on this theme.

This isn’t the only encounter or exchange I’ve had with some other valued acquaintances, also a couple from the tai chi scene, that have gone in a similar direction.

So is Tim ‘stupid’? I hesitate very much to use that term. Certainly wrongly informed, and at the moment – due to personal emotional reasons triggered or at least reinforced by the crisis – not open to logical discussion, argument or persuasion. Like I said, I find Tim intelligent, warm-hearted and he’s someone who I respect very much on various levels. I certainly think he’s very wrong on this issue and I don’t know how our next meeting might turn out. But for me, ‘stupid’ isn’t a term that fits here, and if regarded him as such, it would make it harder for me to build a bridge next time. Which I hope to.

[Giles]

smh at some level he must realize he's doing terribly. maybe when Fox actually says so.

Never underestimate the almost superhuman power and immunity to outside influence of a rampantly narcissistic personality.

[everything]

Sorry to criticize your friend. If he is good at chess, he must have some raw processing power. But he sounds kind of "stupid" to me if he can't figure out these recommendations aren't some kind of conspiracy. I really don't know what to call that.

[Ian C. Kuzushi]

Rather than "stupid," just use the scientific term: covidiot.

Top definition
Covidiot
Relating to the 2020 Covid-19 virus:
Someone who ignores the warnings regarding public health or safety.
A person who hoards goods, denying them from their neighbors.
Did you see that covidiot with 300 rolls of toilet paper in his basket?
That covidiot is hugging everyone she sees.

A group of covidiots is a confefe.

[windwalker]

Giles, I think you do a good job trying to explain what I call stupidity.

But I still just don't fundamentally get it. You may as well be saying "dogs don't have the capacity to intellectually reason, and that's why they don't really draw reasonably thought out conclusions", and that would explain it.

De Blasio had "simultaneous pro-protest/anti-religious gathering messages" when he "actively encouraged participation in protests and openly discouraged religious gatherings and threatened religious worshipers," Sharpe said in his federal order

What’s your conclusion