everything wrote:US CDC is reporting 300k "excess deaths" in the period of beginning of February to end of September. They are comparing the rates from the previous (5 I believe) years vs. the same period this year. It cannot be directly linked to COVID but gives another way to estimate what could be the related counts (Since there are under/over counting issues in the direct counts).(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... jobs-covid)The largest portion of the excess deaths occurred among people aged 75 to 84. That groups saw about 95,000 deaths, or 21.5% more than in a normal year. But the biggest relative increase, of 26.5%, was in people aged 25 to 44. Deaths among under-25s dropped slightly.
Trick wrote:everything wrote:US CDC is reporting 300k "excess deaths" in the period of beginning of February to end of September. They are comparing the rates from the previous (5 I believe) years vs. the same period this year. It cannot be directly linked to COVID but gives another way to estimate what could be the related counts (Since there are under/over counting issues in the direct counts).(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... jobs-covid)The largest portion of the excess deaths occurred among people aged 75 to 84. That groups saw about 95,000 deaths, or 21.5% more than in a normal year. But the biggest relative increase, of 26.5%, was in people aged 25 to 44. Deaths among under-25s dropped slightly.
US CDC reporting , But you link to The Guardian reporting !?......
More than 67,300 Americans died from drug-involved overdose in 2018, including illicit drugs and prescription opioids. The figure above is a bar and line graph showing the total number of U.S. drug overdose deaths involving any illicit or prescription opioid drug from 1999 to 2018. Drug overdose deaths rose from 38,329 in 2010 to 70,237 in 2017. ; followed by a significant decrease in 2018 to 67,367
So, all of the efforts in place to control the disease need to be looked at through this lens as well. While a novel addition to the list Covid-19 is far from the leading killer and we are progressively getting better at treating it as well. Also keep in mind these numbers only account for positive identification of the cause of death. If the cause is indeterminate, it is not captured in these numbers.
For all 50 states plus D.C., this chart plots the percentage of state residents who say they wear a mask in public all or most of the time (on the horizontal axis) and the percentage who say they know someone in their community with virus symptoms (on the vertical axis).
the CovidCast team partnered with Facebook, which is used by 70 percent of U.S. adults and has the ability to survey tens of thousands of them every day at relatively low cost. While the resulting state-level samples aren’t perfect representations of the general population, the researchers weight the responses using Census Bureau demographic data to ensure they’re a good approximation.
“If Facebook’s users are different from the U.S. population generally in a way that the survey weighting process doesn’t account for, then our estimates could be biased,” cautioned Alex Reinhart, a Carnegie Mellon professor of statistics and data science who works on CovidCast and wrote a book on statistical methods. “But if that bias doesn’t change much over time, then we can still use the survey to detect trends and changes.”
He also cautioned that the old saw of “correlation doesn’t equal causation” applies here as well.
“There could be other explanations for the correlation,” he said. “For example, states that had worse outbreaks earlier in the pandemic both have higher mask usage now and more immunity.”
And, he added, “if people say they’re not wearing masks, they may not be taking other protective measures either. So perhaps what we see is a combination of mask usage, other social distancing behaviors and perhaps other factors we haven’t measured.”
“For example, states that had worse outbreaks earlier in the pandemic both have higher mask usage now and more immunity.”
Peacedog wrote:More information on Covid miscounting in the death rate and excess deaths.
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-b ... aggerated/
But, it is certainly true that we are going to have a lot of deaths due to the glut of routine measures, althogh, many hospitals are caught up (eg: the colonoscopy and endoscopy lab at my wife's hospital is 100% caught up).
Steve James wrote:But, it is certainly true that we are going to have a lot of deaths due to the glut of routine measures, althogh, many hospitals are caught up (eg: the colonoscopy and endoscopy lab at my wife's hospital is 100% caught up).
Well, anyone who has to be hospitalized uses hospital resources, whether he had covid or not. There are only X number of beds, nurses, doctors, and health staff. It's true that people who need hospital resources may not go to the hospital because they fear covid. But, anyone can go. The problem is when the hospitals are filled.
It's also no surprise that there are fewer flu cases (especially since flu season just starting) because more people are getting their shots "and" more people are doing more now to prevent the spread of infectious diseases than they ever have before. I.e., many of those who criticize all the government restrictions and lockdowns are (begrudgingly) wearing masks and washing their hands, etc. Many people are even covering their mouths when they cough or sneeze. Go figure
Iirc, the experts predicted a "second wave" or a rise in cases around now, so it's not really surprising. It didn't go away by Easter. Maybe by next one. Hey, it's kind of "normal" around here.
I'm not sure we ever left the first wave, btw. We never had uniform reductions of caseloads. It does look like it will get worse again, though. Even with improvements in treatments/therapy.
I’m not concerned too much about it, haven’t been for years since I moved to China. But how about in the west, will there be any Christmas this year, will families have their Christmas get together, will there be any shopping of Christmas gifts, will Santa dare to come around this year....?. It didn't go away by Easter.
Return to Been There Done That
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests